Elm Grove, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

971
FXUS63 KMKX 220910
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
410 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog possible through early this morning.
- Additional chances (~30-50%) for scattered showers & storms
  today through this evening. An isolated stronger storm with
  gusty winds and hail is possible.
- Periodic rain chances (~15-35%) continue Tuesday through
  Thursday, with high temperatures hovering near normal.
- Conditions dry out by next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 410 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Today through Tuesday:
An area of showers and storms early this morning associated with
a shortwave will continue to slide eastward. This activity will
likely weaken by mid-morning, but additional storms are expected
to fire by afternoon as the shortwave progresses eastward.
Storms will likely be tied to the frontal zone draped across
the northern forecast area this afternoon into early evening,
with a southern progression possible as the front sags
southward. Mid level lapse rates this afternoon into evening
will be around 7 C/km, with 0-6 km shear maxing out around 25
knots. These conditions combined with ML CAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
should result in an environment capable of a few stronger
storms, with a severe storm or two not of the question. Hail and
damaging wind gusts will be the main concern with any stronger
storms.
Storms may linger overnight as the frontal boundary stalls near
the WI/IL border, with scattered showers/storms possible again
on Tuesday near the front. The better chance for storms will be
across the southern forecast area and/or to the south of WI,
depending on where exactly the front is positioned.
Highs in the mid to upper 70s today will cool a touch to the low
to mid 70s tomorrow behind the front.
DDV
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 410 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Tuesday night through Sunday:
Cyclogenesis is looking more likely for Tue nt-Thu when a
shortwave trough tracks ewd from CO to the middle MS River Valley.
The low will then deepen newd across the nrn Ohio River Valley
into either MI or the Lower Great Lakes. There is a good amount of
spread among the ECMWF Ens and GEFS with the track and evolution
of the low and this spread creates much uncertainty with rain
chances during this period. The current rain chances range from
20-40% with the highest Probs over far se WI, but large changes
in the precipitation forecast are possible.
For Fri and the weekend, dry conditions are looking more likely
with high pressure eventually shifting across the region, while an
upper ridge will build in the vicinity of the Upper Midwest. Temps
will remain above normal for the week.
Gehring
DDV
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 410 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Patchy fog this morning may be dense in a few locations before
the sun rises and daytime mixing improves visibilities.
Scattered showers to the northwest may slide into northern
portions of the forecast area early this morning, likely
weakening as this activity pushes into the area. Additional
thunderstorm development will be possible near a frontal
boundary mainly north of I-94 by late this afternoon, with the
storms gradually pushing south during the evening and into the
overnight hours as the front sags southward.
VFR ceilings are expected through the day today into this
evening, with lower ceilings possibly pushing in from the
north tonight behind the front. Light southerly winds today will
become northerly this evening into early Tuesday as the front
drops through the area.
DDV
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 410 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Light southerly winds, variable at times, will prevail through
this evening. Moist conditions may lead to areas of dense fog
over the northern and central portions of the lake through
morning. A weak Canadian cold front will then slowly move north
to south across the lake late tonight into Tuesday morning with
a wind shift to northerly expected. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will occur at times during this period.
Northeast winds will pick up Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday as high pressure around 30.2 inches forms near the
Hudson Bay and low pressure around 29.8 inches develops in the
middle Mississippi Valley. The low will slowly pass near or just
southeast of southern Lake Michigan Wednesday night through
Thursday. Wind gusts are expected to remain below gale thresholds
during the lows approach and passage, though trends will be
monitored in coming forecasts.
DDV
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion