Elmendorf, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

282
FXUS64 KEWX 051134
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
634 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures Friday.
- Rain chances return this weekend with the potential for
  locally heavy rain and flooding.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
Strong wind shear from the subtropical jet is carting off upper-
level moisture from the weakening Tropical Storm Lorena in the
eastern Pacific into our area, which will support the spread of
cirrus over the region today and into the weekend. The center of mid-
level ridging is now to our east, leading to the return of southerly
flow across South-Central Texas. This will help raise dew points by
about 10 degrees relative to where they were yesterday, so lows this
morning will only reach the low to mid 70s for most. Even with the
added moisture, an elongating thermal ridge will help drive
temperatures to the upper 90s to around 100 across the area this
afternoon. Heat indices are expected to top out at around 102 to 106
degrees over the more humid Coastal Plains. Most of the area is
forecast to remain dry today, but a few showers and storms could
start to move into the southern Edwards Plateau late in the day as
the first bits of mid-level energy from Lorena start to pass over
the region.
The pattern starts to shift gears Saturday as a trough swinging
across the Midwest pushes a frontal boundary into our area. Models
have come into better agreement that the front should reach our area
early Saturday with chances for isolated to scattered showers and
storms along the front. Storm chances are slightly more favored over
the Coastal Plains and over the southern Edwards Plateau where
instability is slightly higher, though low to medium rain chances
are seen for the entirety of South Central Texas. The front, rain-
cooled air, and additional clouds will help keep temperatures cooler
behind the front with a mix of 80s to low 90s during the daytime,
while humid warmth with highs in the mid 90s could prevail over the
Coastal Plains and Winter Garden areas with compressional heating
ahead of the front.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Saturday night into Monday, the main batch of moisture from the
remnants of Lorena starts to push across Texas, guided by a
shortwave trough incorporating some of the leftover vorticity from
the former hurricane. The increased moisture and southerly low-level
winds ahead of the trough look to modify the post-frontal
environment, leading to rising instability and chances for rounds of
showers and storms across South-Central Texas as the front lingers
over the area. There is strong likelihood that a moist airmass with
high precipitable water values will be present. However, with Lorena
winding down off the Baja California instead of surviving the trek
into the Desert Southwest, the trough helping to drive this rain
potential looks to be a little more broad and strung out than
previously modeled, increasing uncertainty in rain timing and
coverage. Ensemble guidance has trended downwards in projected
amounts and extent of the rains, though there continues to be some
synoptic signals for locally heavy rain. Sunday and Monday still
feature the highest rain chances, with higher odds of heavier
rainfall along the Rio Grande and over the Edwards Plateau where 925-
850mb moisture transport is most enhanced.
Despite the rainfall uncertainties, plentiful moist air means
locally heavy downpours capable of producing flash flooding remain a
possibility with stronger storm cells and clusters. The WPC has
highlighted a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall
over the entirety of South-Central Texas for Sunday through
Monday morning.
Daytime temperatures will be muted thanks to the clouds and rain,
though they should still reach the upper 80s to low 90s as the post-
frontal airmass warms. On Tuesday, upper ridging starts to
restrengthen over Texas, bringing a return of drier conditions and a
steady upward trend in daytime temperatures back into the mid
90s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
Patches of MVFR CIGs have developed along and east of I-35. Have
TEMPOs at those sites through 15Z. Otherwise, VFR flying
conditions prevail today through this evening. Higher chances
for MVFR CIGs tonight and have maintained as prevailing for all
sites. S to SE winds prevail increasing to 7 to 12 KTs midday
through evening. A front will bring VRBL winds at KDRT this
evening into tonight with possible ISOLD SHRA/TSRA on the NW
approaches to the site and to the I-35 sites on Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  89  72  89 /  10  30  20  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  90  72  90 /  10  30  20  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  92  71  91 /  10  30  30  60
Burnet Muni Airport            72  82  69  84 /  10  40  20  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           78  93  74  89 /  20  60  40  70
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  85  70  87 /  20  30  20  60
Hondo Muni Airport             74  91  72  91 /  10  40  30  70
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  92  71  91 /  10  40  20  60
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  91  72  90 /  10  40  20  60
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  91  74  91 /  10  40  30  60
Stinson Muni Airport           77  93  74  92 /  10  40  30  60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM...Tran
AVIATION...04

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion