Elmira, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

881
FXUS63 KEAX 060759
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
259 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog this morning, mainly for east-central KS and
  west- central MO, as well as low-lying areas through central
  and northern MO.
- Dry conditions with below normal temperatures through the weekend.
  * Near record low temperatures possible this morning.
- Next chance for precipitation arrives late Monday into early
  Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery with surface observations
plotted show cloud cover clearing out and high pressure settling
into eastern KS and western MO. Areas of dense fog are already
noted across portions of KS and satellite imagery shows this
spreading eastward into our KS counties as of 2 AM. Will monitor
trends this morning to see if a Dense Fog Advisory may be
needed. I`m just not certain how widespread fog may get at this
point.
The clear skies, light winds and cool airmass associated with
this high pressure area may result in record low temperatures
this morning. However, current forecast low temperatures are
several degrees warmer than records and while it`s possible we
could see record lows, it`s unlikely. The record low for MCI is
43, set in 1988. The record low for STJ is 42, set 2017, and
seems more in reach given the the 2 AM temperature was 46 and
the propensity for that low-lying site to cool significantly.
Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will continue through
the weekend into the first half of Monday. A cool and dry high
pressure area will continue to build into the region, keeping
temperatures on the cool side. In the upper-levels we`ll remain in
cyclonic flow with the broad, deep upper low extending from the
Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes region. Late Monday into Tuesday,
with the surface high shifted to the east, winds become southerly.
Modest moisture transport brings better moisture back into eastern
KS and western MO, ahead of the next subtle shortwave trough. This
will lead to some light rain showers, and possibly a few
thunderstorms across eastern KS and western/northwestern MO.
Overall, this system doesn`t look to bring enough rainfall to help
alleviate the emerging drought conditions in the area with rain
amounts generally less than a quarter of an inch. From an ensemble
perspective, the KC area only has a low chances, generally less than
20%, of seeing even a tenth of an inch. Far northeastern KS and
northwestern MO have higher probabilities of seeing higher rain
amounts but even this drops off quickly between 0.25" and 0.5".
The pattern shifts for the middle to later portions of next week.
Upper ridging builds into the middle of the country. The upper
pattern actually becomes meridional next week with our area under
stronger ridging that is bounded by deep troughs over the eastern
and western portions of the CONUS. This upper ridging will support
above normal temperatures and we may see highs climb above 90
degrees for the southern half of the forecast area. Moisture will be
limited though, with dewpoints forecast to be in the 50s so while
we`ll see above normal temperatures, it will be less humid than the
heat we had in late August.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Mainly VFR is expected through the next 24 hours. The one caveat
is that some localized fog may develop, particularly at STJ,
around daybreak (about a 30 percent chance). Any fog will be
quick to dissipate an hour or two after sunrise. Fog is most
likely south of the KC metro, but chances are too low at the
metro terminals for inclusion in the TAF at this time. Winds
will be light and somewhat variable tonight, becoming a steady
west wind around 10 kt Saturday afternoon. A gradual veering to
a northwest or north direction is expected late in the day into
Saturday evening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CMS

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion