Elmore, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

258
FXUS61 KCLE 202003
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
403 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over New England will move off the East Coast Sunday.
Low pressure over the Upper Midwest will drift east into the Upper
Great Lakes, lifting a warm front north across the area on Sunday. A
slow moving trough will cross the Great Lakes Region through mid-
week bringing a return to more active weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A stationary boundary highlighted by increased surface convergence
resides across the area this afternoon between high pressure over
Quebec and a broad trough over the Upper Midwest. We are finally
seeing some moisture return to the region with a corridor of 60
degree dewpoints extending from east central Ohio to NW Ohio.
Scattered thunderstorms have developed south of I-70 in eastern Ohio
with an isolated shower or two sneaking north where pockets of cu
are agitated. ML CAPE values are around 1000 J/kg where this is
ongoing to the south with a sharp gradient and more stable
conditions across northern Ohio with a cooler northeasterly flow
in place. With that said, we do see this boundary lift north as
a warm front overnight and have some pockets of isolated
showers or thunderstorms in favored areas.
The first part of Sunday is likely to remain dry with a good deal of
sun and temperatures surging back up into the 80s. Moisture
continues to be a limiting factor and have slowed down the arrival
of thunderstorms into the area. We could see scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the east during the mid afternoon along a pocket of
deeper moisture. Otherwise, we will be waiting for moisture
advection from the southwest aligned with shortwave energy moving
through the trough to kick off activity in NW Ohio from late
afternoon into the evening. The Storm Prediction Center has
highlighted a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for
primarily Sunday evening. Effective shear of 20-25 knots will
combine with ML CAPE values of around 1500 J/kg to create a
threat of a few damaging wind gusts, primarily between 5-10 PM.
Intensity of thunderstorms should wane post sunset as activity
continues east across the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term period is likely to be active and bring some much
needed rain to the area. A broad trough over the Upper Midwest makes
slow eastward progress into the Great Lakes Region through mid-week.
This places the local area under an axis of deeper moisture that we
have not seen for weeks with PW values around 1.75 inches. Shortwave
energy moving through the southwest flow aloft will provide the
opportunity for several rounds of rain between Monday afternoon and
Tuesday night. The main push looks to be Monday afternoon and night
as the main trough axis swings through. Probabilities of seeing at
least a half inch of rain through Tuesday night are over 90% area
wide so there is high confidence in finally receiving some rain.
Many areas will likely receive an inch or more. Clouds and rain
during the Monday-Tuesday period will push temperatures back
into the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast confidence heading into the extended periods decreases.
Several models from the 00Z suite had a strong high located north
of the Great Lakes again, while the 12Z models are favoring
another trough moving from the Plains through the Ohio Valley
Wednesday through Friday. This would maintain a more wet pattern
through the second half of the week. Chances of rain are in the
forecast through much of the extended but timing rounds of rain
is challenging at this time scale. The active storm track looks
to eventually shift south of our forecast area heading into
next weekend. Temperatures should be generally near normal in
this pattern.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Aloft, mainly S`erly to SW`erly flow and embedded/subtle
disturbances affect our region through 18Z/Sun as a trough
lingers over/near the western Great Lakes and a ridge exits
slowly E`ward from the eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley.
A surface warm front should begin to move N`ward through our
region after ~12Z/Sun, decelerate, and essentially stall in
vicinity of a KTOL to KCLE to KGKJ line by 18Z/Sun. Surface
ridging will precede and follow the front.
Our regional surface winds will be NE`erly to SE`erly around 5
to 10 knots ahead of the front. Behind the front, S`erly winds
around 10 to 15 knots are expected. Surface winds should gust
up to 20 knots at times after ~14Z/Sun, especially at/near KERI.
Primarily VFR are expected during the TAF period. However, very
isolated rain showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR to IFR
are possible this evening through 18Z/Sun, along the surface
portion of the front and the front`s upper-reaches. Given the
expected coverage of showers and storms, there is very low
confidence that convection will impact any TAF site in northern
OH and NW PA.
Outlook...Periodic non-VFR with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon through this Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 2 AM EDT Sunday from
Maumee Bay to Ripley. The Beach Hazards Statement for a high risk of
rip currents remains in effect until 2 AM Sunday from Ottawa County,
OH to Erie County, PA. A moderate risk of rip currents lingers along
the Lucas County, OH shore until the wee hours of Sunday morning.
Please see our latest Hazardous Weather Outlook for more details
about the moderate rip current risk.
Ridging affects Lake Erie through tonight as the embedded high
pressure center moves from southern QC to ME and weakens slightly.
Elsewhere, a front and associated trough linger in vicinity of the
Upper OH Valley and southern OH this evening before the front begins
to shift N`ward overnight tonight. The interaction between the ridge
and trough will maintain NE`erly to E`erly winds around 15 to 25
knots through this early evening before winds ease to 10 to 20 knots
by midnight tonight and then ease further to 10 to 15 knots by
daybreak Sunday while veering to SE`erly. Accordingly, waves as
large as 3 to 7 feet persist through this early evening. Waves then
subside gradually to 3 feet or less by daybreak Sunday morning.
On Sunday through Sunday night, the warm front will drift N`ward
across Lake Erie and cause SE`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to
veer to S`erly to SW`erly as waves remain mainly 3 feet or less.
However, occasional 4 footers are expected in open U.S. waters
Sunday night, when winds should flirt with 20 knots at times,
especially over those open waters. During Monday through Monday
night, SW`erly winds of 5 to 15 knots are expected as our region
becomes located along the northwestern flank of a surface ridge
centered in vicinity of the southern Appalachians. Waves of mainly 3
feet or less are expected. However, occasional 4 footers remain
likely in open U.S. waters through early Monday afternoon since
winds should flirt with 20 knots at times over open waters through
about midday.
A cold front should drift SE`ward across Lake Erie Tuesday through
Tuesday night. Behind the front, a ridge is expected to impact Lake
Erie through this Thursday as the embedded high pressure center
moves from northern ON toward New England. The cold front passage
and subsequent building ridge will cause SW`erly winds around 5 to
15 knots to veer gradually to NE`erly Tuesday through Tuesday night.
NE`erly to E`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected this
Wednesday through Thursday and waves should remain 3 feet or
less.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ007-
     009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka

NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion