Elmwood Cemetery Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

021
FXUS64 KTSA 142254
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
554 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 554 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
- Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry weather through much of
the work week
- Thunderstorm chances return late Friday and continue through
Saturday before a cold front pushes east of the region by Sunday.
Severe weather potential exists.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
While it was quite a bit cooler across NE OK and into NW AR
yesterday, temperatures really only fell back to near average for
this time of year. Upper level ridging will intensify over the
region again today, allowing temperatures to return back to well
above average areawide (generally mid-upper 80s). Lingering cloud
cover will tend to retreat northward, allowing for mostly clear
skies and dry conditions this afternoon through tonight. Winds
remain light out of the SSE through tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Warm and dry conditions will persist for much of the week under the
influence of upper ridging, with highs remaining in the 80s through
Friday (+10 to 15 deg above average). By late week, the ridge begins
to weaken as the western trough begins to impinge on the Plains
states. As this occurs, low level winds will strengthen out of the
south, becoming gusty on Friday afternoon. This southerly flow will
eventually transport better moisture back north into the CWA, but a
period of limited fire weather concerns could develop Friday
afternoon prior to its arrival... mainly for portions of NE OK. As
with the previous forecast, winds and gusts have been increased some
from the NBM on Friday which paints a broad area of 10-20 mph,
gusting 20-30 mph.
As aforementioned troughing ejects off the Rockies, a SW-NE oriented
cold front will surge southward Friday night and Saturday. With
better moisture in place by this point, showers and thunderstorms
are forecast to develop across much of the FA. While the fine
details remain to be seen at this range, the environment does appear
to be supportive of severe weather Saturday, possibly including
tornado potential. With that said, precipitation coverage Saturday
morning could be a limiting factor and will need to be considered
for severe potential later in the day. The front and associated
precip exits the area Saturday night with more seasonally-
appropriate temperatures filling in behind it for Sunday. Going into
next week, a more active pattern takes shape with potential for
another storm system and temperature swings through mid week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period with clear skies
and mainly light winds. Winds will favor the southeast to east
overall. No rain is expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  85  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   62  86  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  88  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   58  85  56  83 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   56  84  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   59  81  57  80 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   60  85  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   61  85  59  83 /  10  10   0   0
F10   61  85  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   60  85  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...06

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion