Elsa, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

939
FXUS64 KBRO 251143 AAB
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
643 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
-Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the
 northern ranchlands into early Thursday.
-Heavy rainfall will be possible into early Thursday across the
 northern ranchlands.
-A frontal boundary slowly works south, bringing an increased
 chance of showers and thunderstorms across Deep South Texas into
 Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A frontal boundary continues working south into Thursday,
bringing an increased threat for showers and thunderstorms to Deep
South Texas. Confidence is low in where this front stalls.
Earlier convection across Brooks County yielded up to 3 inches of
rain and gusty winds near 50 mph well out ahead of the front. The
WPC ERO has shifted further north, now a marginal (level 1 of 4)
risk across the northern half of the northern ranchlands. Our
sounding at 00z showed a bump in PWATs above 2 inches. The SPC has
dropped severe chances below the marginal risk for all of Texas.
Still, the radar has become more active across the CRP CWA and
most CAMs expand coverage across the ranchlands late tonight into
mid Thursday morning as the front stalls. Heavy rainfall and gusty
to damaging winds are possible in any activity, with sounding
data showing abundant CAPE, DCAPE, slightly increasing shear, a
thickening column of moisture, and steepening low level lapse
rates.
After some sunshine and early heating on Thursday, boundary
collisions between the front, sea breeze, or convective outflows
should increase or continue convection into Thursday afternoon.
Most CAMs highlight the lower to mid valley, especially Cameron
County Thursday afternoon with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Have still shaved NBM POPs down a bit to scatter
coverage a little more. A lot depends on where the front ends up
though, with most model guidance pushing it further south into
Friday.
Over the weekend, a weak coastal trough sets up along the western
Gulf with a bit of a brief Omega block at 500mb before the next
shortwave on Monday into Tuesday. Expect seasonal temperatures to
continue through the forecast period, a little warmer Friday and
Saturday behind the front with drier conditions. Isolated rain
chances drop off a bit this weekend, but come back scattered next
week, mainly along typical sea breeze locations.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms to the north of the
airfields is slowly working it`s way south. HiRes guidance
shows little further development this morning, lending to a
scenario where impacts at the airfields will likely be limited to
some brief showers, however the possibility of a thunderstorm
moving over an airfield can`t be ruled out. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities could develop as the line moves through.
VFR conditions look to return by late afternoon, and continue
through the remainder of the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Generally favorable winds and seas continue offshore, with
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms after daybreak and
into Thursday night. Winds and seas may be elevated near any
showers or thunderstorms. Waterspouts may also be possible,
especially near the edges of showers or thunderstorms, with
lighter winds and abundant low level moisture.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             92  76  91  75 /  70  50  30  10
HARLINGEN               91  72  92  70 /  70  40  30   0
MCALLEN                 93  76  96  74 /  70  30  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         92  72  95  71 /  70  30  20   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  80  87  80 /  80  50  30  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  75  89  74 /  70  40  30  10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...60-BE

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion