Elsmere Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

595
FXUS63 KLBF 070844
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
344 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Frost Advisory remains in effect until later this morning
  for Garden, Sheridan, and western Cherry Counties.
- After one more cooler day Wednesday, temperatures rebound to
  the upper 70s and lower 80s for Thursday through Saturday
  with largely dry conditions.
- Large upper-trough will settle into the Northern Rockies by
  early next week, bringing increased precipitation chances in
  addition to cooler temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
This morning, surface high pressure was settling south into western
Nebraska. This has led to light winds across the area under clearing
skies. The combination of these two has allowed for strong
radiational cooling with low temperatures to fall into the middle to
upper 30s for much of the Sandhills into Nebraska Panhandle. Frost
Advisories continue for Sheridan, Garden, and western Cherry
Counties as a result. Based on late Monday evening model guidance
including statistical guidance, no changes were made to the
inherited headline. While some isolated areas of low to mid-level
clouds are developing over the Sandhills, these should remain fairly
sparse in coverage and shouldn`t hinder the cooldown much if at all.
Further south, increased mid-level cloudiness is apparent for our
southwest zones. This lines up well with some modest mid-level
convergence. Though radar imagery suggests a few high level echoes,
nothing has succeeded in reaching the surface north of the
Nebraska/Kansas state line. Believe this will continue through the
remainder of the early morning and so have maintained a dry forecast.
Tuesday/Tuesday Night...temperatures should see a slight boost from
Monday`s values across the whole of the region. This will occur as
surface high pressure departs the local area and southerly flow
returns. Temperatures at h85 will see a 2-4C climb with surface
temperatures likely matching that same climb. Afternoon highs as a
result will settle into the middle 60s. Skies should remain mostly
sunny as winds continue to be light and variable. Later tonight, a
modest LLJ will develop and should promote increasingly breezy winds
during the evening. This will favor our western zones and leaned on
a blend of the NBM/NBM90 for overnight winds which produced a few
areas of 25-30 mph gusts, particularly for higher terrain areas such
as the Pine Ridge. While expecting another cooler night, lows should
manage to remain in the 40s which is mild for the time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Ridging aloft begins to build northward through the plains on
Wednesday. Ridging will continue to amplify Thursday into Friday as
a deep upper trough starts to dig southward along the west coast. By
Saturday, the ridge will shift eastward slightly as the west coast
upper trough begins to eject northeastward toward the northern
Rockies Saturday and into Canada by Sunday. Overall, this looks to
be a dry and warm pattern for our area through Sunday. Highs will
warm from the mid 60s to near 70 Wednesday into the 70s to lower 80s
Thursday through Sunday. As the ridging aloft begins to breakdown
Saturday, gusty south winds appear they will develop. Humidity seems
to remain only marginally low as some low-level moisture is returned
northward into the area on the southerly flow. Will have to monitor
this however, if the air is drier and humidity lower, then some fire
weather concern could develop.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Little change from previous forecasts for the extended period. Broad
upper-level high pressure remains situated over the Gulf. This
feature will retrograde slightly with amplifying ridging across much
of the southern and central Plains towards Thursday when a 590 dam
dome of high pressure settles around Big Bend National Park.
Amplified southwesterly flow upstream of the ridge axis will fetch
richer moisture from Hurricane Priscilla in the eastern Pacific.
While temperatures climb for the late week with values returning to
the upper 70s and lower 80s, moisture will also increase
considerably with highly anomalous moisture crossing the Front Range
late Friday. Both EPS/GEFS outputs paint Precipitable Water (PWAT)
values exceeding 200% of normal. In fact, NAEFS guidance hints at
PWAT values nearing the max in the model climatology for the time of
year. While normally a setup favoring the threat for rain and heavy
rain at that, the lack of any appreciable disturbance rounding the
ridge will keep the forecast largely devoid of any large scale heavy
rain events. Ridge breakdown begins sometime Saturday as deeper
troughing across the Northwest begins to shift east into the
northern Rockies. Overall, this disturbance should remain well north
and west of the local area and thus keep temperatures from falling
too considerably. This will also keep much of the precipitation
potential out of the area with EPS/GEFS probabilities favoring west
of the Continental Divide. Evolution of the upper-level pattern
beyond this weekend remains somewhat unclear as deterministic and
ensemble guidance diverges considerably. What does appear more
probable is positive height anomalies lingering beyond the end of
the valid forecast period thus suggesting near to slightly above
normal temperatures continuing into the middle of the month.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for NEZ004-022-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Gomez

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion