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Emery Park, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

236
FXUS61 KALY 021216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 816 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.UPDATE... Quick update this morning to allow the Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory to expire as temperatures continue to warm with abundant sunshine.

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.SYNOPSIS... Our stretch of dry weather will persist through early next week as high pressure dominates the Northeast. While fall-like temperatures will be in place through tomorrow, above normal temperatures return this weekend into early next week before our next chance for widespread rain arrives during the middle of next week.

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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Grab your jacket for the morning commute today as clear skies and weakening winds overnight supported ideal radiational cooling resulting in a chilly and frosty start to the day with lows in the 30s and 40s. As a ~590dm ridge positioned in the Ohio Valley builds eastward and a 1030hPa sfc high in Ontario shifts into New England, large scale subsidence will maintain our dry streak with very low PWATs under 0.50" keeping dew points in the 30s and RH values near or under 40%. Despite the low RH values, winds stay light today as the pressure gradient relaxes thereby mitigating concerns for fire spread. While forecast soundings suggest boundary layer mixing extends into the mid-levels, the air mass aloft is still quite cool with 850hPa isotherms only +2C and -1C. This combined with the cool morning will limit how warm temperatures become today with probabilistic guidance showing under 20% chance for highs to reach or exceed 65 degrees for much of eastern NY and western New England. Values increase to 40-60% in the mid-Hudson Valley. Otherwise, sunny skies mix with cirrus clouds as upper level moisture spills overtop the ridge.

One more cool night tonight as high pressure becomes centered overhead supporting radiational cooling. However, as upper level ridging flattens out and westerly flow ensues, the air mass aloft modifies/warms a bit with the cirrus canopy also lingering. Thus, overnight lows should not be quite as cool as Wed night with lows more likely in the mid to upper 30s to low 40s. NBM probabilistic guidance shows 40-60% chance for lows to drop under 35 mainly in the higher peaks of the northern eastern Catskills, southern Greens, and Upper Hudson Valley but not enough coverage at this time to issue any frost advisories. Will continue to monitor trends.

High pressure persists into Friday with flat ridging aloft supporting continued westerly flow that continues to usher in a milder air mass aloft. As early cirrus clouds give way to abundant sunshine, it will feel warmer with highs rising into the 60s to low 70s.

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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Message:

- Temperatures trend 10 to 15 degrees above normal Saturday through Tuesday with a 50-70% chance for temperatures to reach or exceed 80 degrees in the Hudson and Mohawk Valley Sunday and Monday.

- There is a 50-70% chance for at least a quarter inch of rain across much of eastern NY and western New England for the middle of next week as our next disturbances progresses through the Northeast.

Discussion:

A stretch of above normal temperatures ensues Saturday through Tuesday as high pressure shifts off shore with southwesterly return flow ushering in an unseasonably warm air mass. The warmest days look to be Sunday and Monday where 850hPa isotherms reach 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal per the NAEFS and probabilistic guidance shows 50-70% chance for highs to reach or exceed 80 degrees in the Hudson and Mohawk Valley. Large scale subsidence should also support mostly sunny skies through this period. While clear skies overnight will support large diurnal temperature swings on the order of 20 to 25 degrees, nighttime lows look remain elevated enough to mitigate frost concerns.

By Tuesday into especially Wednesday we will monitor our next chance for widespread rainfall as a cold front gradually slides south and east out of Ontario. A shortwave trough tracking through southern Canada and an anti-cyclonically curved jet look to intensify, providing large scale forcing for ascent with southerly flow directing a moisture plume out of the Gulf into the Northeast. All of these ingredients in the synoptic pattern are increasing confidence for widespread rainfall with probabilistic guidance showing 50-70% chance for 0.25"+ of rain for much of the area. Still some uncertainties on exact time of arrival of rain and which areas will receive the highest amounts but confidence has increased enough that we show widespread chance POPs on Wednesday.

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.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure continues to build in over eastern New York and western New England this morning thru the afternoon with mostly clear skies aside from a few thin cirrus. KGFL/KALB/KPOU/PSF will have VFR conditions prior to 12Z/Fri.

The winds will vary from the southeast to south at less than 7 KT from the late morning through the afternoon...and become light and variable in direction at 5 KT or less to calm tonight.

Outlook...

Friday Night to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

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.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.

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UPDATE...JPV SYNOPSIS...Speciale SHORT TERM...Speciale LONG TERM...Speciale AVIATION...Wasula

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion

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