Engelhard, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

258
FXUS62 KMHX 020546
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
146 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Imelda and the remnants of Humberto are moving to the
northeast and farther away from ENC but will continue to bring
coastal impacts to the area through late week due to their
respective swells. High pressure will build from the NE into the
weekend bringing a prolonged period of NE to E winds with
seasonable temperatures and generally dry conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 115 AM Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Gusty NE winds continue
 - Coastal impacts continue (see coastal flood section)
Hurricane Imelda and the remnants of Humberto continue to move
northeast and away from ENC. Over land, a surface high is
centered over Quebec and is expanding south across the eastern
US.
Cloudy skies generally along and east of hwy 17, becoming more
clear to the west. This is expected to continue through the
night, allowing for areas west of 17 to be the coldest spots
tonight, in the low 50s. Elsewhere, cloud cover will act as a
blanket, and lows will be in the upper 50s to around 60. The
gradient between the offshore systems and the strengthening high
will remain tight, which will keep NE winds breezy across the
FA. Winds will be strongest along the OBX and Downeast Carteret
with gusts up to 35 mph in the afternoon today. With drier high
pressure building in from the north, a rain free forecast
continues with enough breaks in the clouds for us to see the sun
again. This airmass change has brought a noticeable difference
in humidity with fcst dewpoints into the 50s this afternoon.
High temps in the mid 70s for most.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 115 AM Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Gusty NE winds continue
 - Coastal impacts continue (see coastal flood section)
Dry weather continues tonight, with the NE winds continuing to
gradually lessen. This in turn gradually lessens our coastal
flooding concerns tonight. See Coastal Flooding section for more
information. Tonight partly cloudy skies are expected with lows
in the 50s once again. Wind should remain elevated enough to
preclude any fog concerns.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Thursday...Sfc high pressure will be centered off the
Mid-Atlantic coast while upper ridging builds across the Eastern
CONUS into early next week. NE winds continue Friday into Saturday,
then veer to Ely as the sfc high migrates off the Mid-Atlantic
coast. Generally dry weather is expected for most area although a
coastal trough offshore may produce a few showers across the coastal
waters. Some guidance continues to show some of these showers
working their way toward the coast. Temps will be a few degrees
below normal through the week with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Temps warm to near normal over the weekend and early next week with
highs around 80/lower 80s.
By the middle of next week, the upper ridge breaks down as a strong
northern stream trough digs into the Northern Plains and Midwest
with sfc high pressure migrating farther offshore and sfc cold front
approaching from the NW bringing increasing chances of showers
across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 120 AM Thursday...Predominantly VFR conditions are
expected through the period. A pinched pressure gradient between
the high pressure building in from the north and offshore
Imelda will bring wind gusts back up to 15-20 kt in the
afternoon. Low clouds 4-5 kft will linger through the period,
with a 20-40% chance of brief MVFR cigs as low as 2 kft in the
morning hours today where the cloud deck has already set up as
of 120am. TEMPO groups exist for EWN, ISO, and PGV to handle
this potential.
LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 130 AM Thursday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
the long term with high pressure building in from the northeast.
NE to E will be less than 15 kt through the period. Cannot rule
out patchy late night fog toward the end of the week when winds
will be weaker and low levels decouple overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 125 AM Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Treacherous marine conditions through the period
Latest obs show NE winds 15-25 kt gusting 25-34 kt and seas
9-14 ft at 11-13 seconds. With the pressure gradient tight
between high pressure building from the north and offshore
Hurricane Imelda and the remnants of Humberto, conditions will
remain dangerous through tonight despite the gradually lessening
winds. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters
except the Pamlico/Pungo rivers today. As winds continue
decreasing once we get into tonight, inland sounds/rivers SCA
headlines should gradually drop. Coastal waters will remain in
SCA due to lingering seas however.
LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 1 AM Thursday...
Key Message
- Gradually improving marine conditions through the long term
   but elevated seas will keep Small Craft Advisories across
   the coastal waters into early next week.
High pressure building in from the north will bring NE winds around
10-20 kt on Friday. The high migrates offshore over the weekend with
winds becoming easterly around 15 kt or less.
Seas around 6-12 ft on Friday will slowly subside through the
long term, however seas as high as 6-7 ft expected to keep SCA
conditions across the coastal waters through Monday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 130 AM Thursday...Long period swell and strong NE winds
are causing minor to moderate coastal flooding along the OBX and
this will continue through Friday. Strong NE winds will lead to
minor coastal flooding for soundside areas adj to the southern
Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay/Pamlico Rivers through tonight. CF
Warnings and Advisories remain in effect as water levels will
remain elevated.
Oceanside...The forecast remains on track as long period swell
from Humberto and Imelda continuing to impact the beaches late
this week bringing dangerous rip currents, large breaking
waves, ocean overwash, coastal flooding, and wave runup impacts.
Most significant impacts continue to be across portions of the
OBX near Hatteras Island and Ocracoke where 2 to 3 ft AGL of
inundation is possible through Friday given weakened dune
structures across the area. 1 to 2 ft of inundation is possible
across oceanside Crystal Coast and NOBX. The strong NEerly winds
due to the strong high pressure may exacerbate the issues
brought on from the strong swell. High Surf Advisories remain
north of Cape Lookout for rough surf and beach erosion.
Soundside...Prolonged period of strong NE winds will lead to
water level rises through tonight. 1-2 ft of inundation is
expected along the southern Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay and
Pamlico/Pungo rivers.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for NCZ080-094-
     194.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     199.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-199-
     203>205.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ196-204-205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ203.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion