Ennice, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

403
FXUS61 KRNK 190720
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
320 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in with a moisture-starved backdoor front
making it into our area this weekend. Isolated to scattered
showers are possible with this feature. Additional chances of
rain arrive throughout the week with a nearing cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1) Another warm day with clear skies.
High pressure and clear skies are promoting ideal radiational
cooling conditions this morning. Lower boundary layer moisture
however will keep most fog relegated to the mountain and river
valleys. This will clear up by 9 AM or so.
High pressure wedging into the area will support warmer
temperatures and sunny skies today as heights rise. A few
clouds are expected for the southern Blue Ridge and northern NC
with weak positive vorticity aloft and diurnal/differential
heating processes ensuing. Highs should be at or just above
normal, in the upper 70s to mid 80s in the mountains and
foothills to the mid to upper 80s for the Piedmont.
Tonight, radiational cooling conditions will support overnight
lows in the low to upper 50s for the mountains and foothills,
to the upper 50s to low 60s for the Piedmont. Patchy light fog
is possible Friday morning for the VA and NC Piedmonts.
Confidence in the near term is high.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1) Slight chance of showers over the weekend
Over the weekend a cold front will descend from the OH River
Valley into the Appalachians. As it interacts with a wedge,
the front will slow and the boundary will wrap itself around the
mountains, and become a stationary front remaining in the
region through the weekend. As a result of this front`s
presence, isolated showers will form around the forecast area,
with low potential for some thunder in the afternoons and early
evening.
Temperatures will see a slight decline with the presence of the
front, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1) Showers possible in the middle of next week
2) Uncertainty surrounding the track of a cutoff low makes for a
low confidence forecast
The feature which will determine most of our conditions next
week is a cutoff mid-level low that is progged to enter the
Midwest early next week. However, there is not a consensus on
the low`s trajectory after that. If it does make its way further
south and east, pushing out some weak high pressure, it could
lead to widespread showers next week. On the other hand, some
guidance stalls the low against ridging on the east coast and
prevents it from causing such a rain event. Maintaining some
chance precipitation, but there is low confidence in what the
real world impacts will be next week.
Temperatures remain around or slightly above normal for late
September.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Friday...
VFR conditions expected through Friday evening. Exception will
be LIFR fog at LYH, LWB and possibly BCB late tonight. BCB fog
development is low confidence. Winds will remain light and
variable. Fog improves after 09Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
Should maintain VFR into the weekend aside from any late night
fog normally at LWB/BCB. A front this weekend looks limited on
moisture so am anticipating VFR. Potential sub-VFR early next
week as high pressure wedges down while warm lifts back north.
MVFR conditions possible in -SHRA/-TSRA Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...SH

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion