Eola, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

059
FXUS63 KLOT 240742
AFDLOT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
242 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Intermittent showers mainly well south of I-80 lingers
  through Wednesday evening.
- Chances for lake effect showers overnight and into Thursday
  morning closer to the lake.
- Drier conditions to end the week as temperatures inch back
  into the 80s over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows a pair for vort
lobes spinning over Michigan`s Upper Peninsula and southern
Wisconsin, while an upper level short wave sinks down the Great
Plains. Scattered showers continue near and south of US-24
closer to the better forcing under a broad upper level jet
streak. Meanwhile, isolated showers have developed from
Princeton to Joliet along a mid level convergence axis. With
instability being so shallow (and capped) thunder is not
expected and these showers should gradually peter out over the
next couple hours. Broad upper level clouds will remain over the
area through day break keeping minimum temperatures in the low
60s south of I-88. However, breaks in the cloud cover are
forming over Wisconsin that are creeping into northern Illinois
as that vort lobe slinks southward which may help the northern
part of the forecast area start Wednesday out in the upper 50s.
The previously mentioned short wave will continue to phase with
the upper level low over the Great Lakes and swing eastward
through the day. As it does, an upper level jet streak will
intensify to around 100 knots over southeast Missouri to
northwest Ohio. Mid 60s dew points should remain through the
day southeast of I-55. As localized vort maxes pass over the
area, isolated to scattered showers are possible through the day
Wednesday. However, the better forcing is expected to be south
and east of the forecast area. Poor lapse rates will probably
keep the thunder threat to a minimum, so it was currently left
out of the forecast.
Winds will be out of the northeast and become more northerly
through the day. Winds will be breezy closer to the lakeshore
where gusts around 20 mph are expected this morning and into the
afternoon. Winds will diminish and become more northerly this
evening, if not slightly northwesterly. An additional slug of
mid level moisture will move down the lake this evening, with a
cooler air mass near 10C at 850 mb. Temperatures over the lake
are solidly in the 60s and with good fetch and decent sfc-850 mb
temperature gradient, there is a chance for lake effect showers
to develop along the lake shore, particularly Wednesday night
into Thursday morning.
The upper level trough finally starts to move east Thursday and
Friday and settling over the southeast. Meanwhile, an upper
level ridge is expected to build over the Plains and shift into
the Western Great Lakes. Surface high pressure and a drier air
mass will slowly spread over the area to end the week to
finally remove precipitation mentions from the forecast.
Temperatures will slowly creep up into the weekend. Low 80s are
possible for the western portion of the forecast area on
Friday, with better chances for widespread 80s over the weekend.
Current ensemble models are suggesting that that the ridge may
develop into an upper level high over the Great Lakes. And with
a low over the southeast, that could develop yet another pseudo-
Rex block pattern over the area - which would keep warmer temps
and drier conditions through early next week.
DK
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The main aviation concerns relate to timing MVFR/localized IFR
cigs today.
An initial batch of low-MVFR cigs near the lake appears to be
pushing southward, with cigs at ORD/MDW steadily lifting
towards 3 kft agl. Recent webcam imagery indicates cloud bases
may be lowering a bit again over downtown Chicago, but the
latest model guidance suggests cigs may temporarily improve to
near VFR at ORD/MDW. Upstream, there are clear signs of an
additional push of low-level moisture which should result in an
expansion of low-MVFR cigs across the lake-adjacent terminals
towards daybreak or shortly thereafter. Bases should then
gradually rise to VFR this afternoon. Maintained the PROB30
mention for a few showers at GYY later this morning.
At RFD and DPA: VFR conditions are expected for the next few
hours, but MVFR to even IFR cigs should develop, but possibly
not until after 10-11z. With dewpoint depressions only about 2
degrees at RFD and winds weakening under 5 kts, will need to
keep an eye on BR, as well as the potential for IFR/near LIFR
cigs. Confidence in this is too low to include in the outgoing
TAFs, however.
Winds will generally remain north/northeast at the terminals
today. Intermittent gusts near 20 kts will be possible mid
morning through the afternoon at the Chicago-area sites before
winds ease and turn northerly in the evening. There will be a
potential for some shallow BR Wednesday overnight at DPA/RFD,
but chances are currently too low for a mention in the TAFs.
Carlaw
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for ILZ006-
     ILZ103-ILZ104.
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through
     Thursday afternoon for INZ001-INZ002.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the IL
     nearshore waters.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT
     Thursday for the IN nearshore waters.
&&
$$
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NWS LOT Office Area Forecast Discussion