Erie, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

331
FXUS63 KFGF 082028
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
328 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a 1 of 5 risk for isolated severe thunderstorms
  through late evening across portions of west central
  Minnesota. Large hail, up to 1 inch, will be the primary
  hazard.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...Synopsis...
Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, evening, and
early overnight hours. H5 shortwave continues southeastward along
the downstream side of an approaching ridge. This ridge is expected
to move very slowly to the east, displaying characteristics of a
standing wave or weak blocking pattern. This is due to deep, H5
troughs on either side of the ridge, with slow movement to the east.
Warmer temperatures build into the ridge today through Friday,
allowing afternoon highs to climb well into the 70s to low 80s each
afternoon. Mid 80s become possible heading into Friday and Saturday
before the ridge pushes to the east, giving way to southwest H5
flow. The oncoming flow pattern shows support for showers and
thunderstorms as early as Thursday afternoon, with additional precip
chances each day through Sunday. While it remains too early to
gather exact details, strong storms could be possible late this week
and into the weekend due to multiple shortwave passages.
...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Possible Today...
A weak shortwave is moving across the region this afternoon and
evening. A relatively strong 850mb jet is currently moving eastward
into west central Minnesota, providing moisture ahead of the
shortwave and allowing MUCAPE to climb upwards of 2000 J/Kg. Lapse
rates this evening will be high enough to allow a mention of at
least a few stronger storms; however, this conditional threat will
be somewhat short-lived as the low level jet continues eastward. The
primary hazard this evening will be hail up to 1 inch in diameter,
with the potential for smaller hail persisting into the early
overnight period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Kept the mention of VCTS out of the TAFs for now. We could see a
few thunderstorms mainly along and south of a line from KFAR to
KBJI later this afternoon and evening. Overall, VFR ceilings are
expected to continue through the TAF period with winds generally
at or below 10 knots. Mid level clouds are expected to increase,
but are not likely to impact ceilings at this time.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion