Estes Lake Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

244
FXUS63 KMQT 141125
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
725 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonable temperatures for midweek followed by a warm start
  to the weekend.
- Slight chance of light rain showers tonight into Wednesday
  morning, mainly closer to the WI/MI stateline. Rain chances
  increase Thursday night into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Early morning RAP analysis and GOES satellite imagery reveal a deep
trough encompassing much of the western CONUS as a closed upper low
digs south down the California coastline. This is working to
amplify upstream height rises across the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes where incoming sfc high pressure in the Canadian Prairies is
providing mostly clear skies and chilly NW flow. Temps across the UP
this morning range from the mid 30s in the interior west where light
winds have allowed efficient radiational cooling to around 50 in the
Keweenaw, being somewhat modified by NW flow off of Lake Superior.
Elsewhere, temps have dipped into the 40s. Weak embedded shortwaves
within the broad troughing further S and W is beginning to usher in
high to midlevel cloud cover.
Aforementioned sfc high pressure builds over the Upper Great Lakes on
today, becoming centered overhead on Wednesday as it weakens
slightly. Mid level ridging builds over the central CONUS with a
ridge riding shortwave tonight into Wednesday. Meanwhile, the deep
trough upstream sets up over the Rockies and a series of troughs
moves over eastern Canada. Cooler northerly flow keeps temps
slightly colder than normal with highs only expected in the upper
40s to upper 50s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Latest
guidance suite is still rather unimpressed with measurable (>0.01")
rain chances late tonight into early Wednesday, with global
ensembles displaying a 10-40% chance along the MI/WI border.
HREF/NBM are a bit more optimistic, suggesting a ~40-70% chance for
measurable rain by Wednesday morning. Regardless, if any rain can be
squeezed out, it will be rather low impact. That said, if a drier
solution pans out, less clouds could help cooler temps resolve.
Quiet and calm weather returns on Wednesday with the high pressure
now centered overhead. Highs will be in the 50s across the UP.
Expect similar lows Wednesday night, but with clouds increasing from
the southwest, coldest temps will be interior east instead.
Attention then turns to the deep trough upstream. The mid level
ridge begins to migrate east as the trough lifts out over the
Northern Plains, developing surface low Wednesday night. The high
pressure quickly gives way to the east on Thursday, allowing for a
warm front to re-introduce PoPs to the forecast as the low to the
west lifts toward the Dakotas. The trough begins to quickly pivot
northeast Thursday night through Friday, deepening the surface low
as it lifts to near Lake Winnipeg. Guidance begins to diverge on the
mid level pattern as the shortwave/surface low pair continue
northeast this weekend, but persistent troughing over the region
keeps rain chances in the forecast this weekend (supported also by
marginally cold enough lake surface-850mb delta-Ts for lake effect
precip Saturday night and Sunday). That said, impactful amounts of
rain are unlikely given probabilities of 0.5" struggle to reach 25%.
Otherwise, temps warm back above normal for the first half of the
weekend with spots possibly reaching back into the low to mid 70s on
Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 724 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
VFR conditions expected across Upper Michigan through the period as
high pressure moves overhead today. Winds NW ~10 kt at CMX and N ~10
kt at SAW today, becoming light this evening into tonight. A weak
disturbance crossing northern WI will bring a 15-30% chance of rain
showers across the UP tonight, with the best chances along the WI
border 00-06z Wed.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
North-northwest winds settle below 25 kts across the west half of
Lake Superior this morning with winds over the east half following
suit this evening as high pressure builds in. Winds settle
below 15 kts across the lake Tuesday night, holding through
Thursday morning. High pressure quickly gives way on Thursday,
reintroducing 20-30 kt winds to the lake for Thursday night and
next weekend.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...BW

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion