887 FXUS62 KTBW 151813 AFDTBWArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 213 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Drier air continues to sit over the area giving us quiet and slightly cooler weather especially north of I-4. There is just enough moisture down in SW Florida to produce a shower or two but most of us will be staying dry today.
As we go through the rest of the week there will be a divide between more moist air, rain showers, and summer time temperatures to the south. While the the northern area of our CWA has drier air, less rain, and slightly cooler air. A great example of this divide is Thursday and Friday where the Nature Coast has PoPs between 10 to 20 percent while SW Florida are sitting at 60 to 70 percent.
As we get into the weekend moisture will start to return to the the Nature Coast with the best chance for showers across the whole CWA occurring on Sunday. &&
.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
VFR conditions through the period with a few passing shower possible down south. Winds will generally stay below 10 knots.
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.MARINE... Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Quiet weather will continue through our week with drier air in our northern waters. For our southern waters high moisture will remain which will result in some isolated showers mainly in the evening and overnight hours. Winds will remain out of the east and northeast with winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots starting Tuesday and lasting for rest of the week.
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.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
We will see some drier air north of I-4 through the weekend which will limit shower chances. However, we will not be close to any critical levels of RH. &&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 74 89 75 / 0 0 10 10 FMY 91 73 90 74 / 20 10 40 30 GIF 91 72 91 72 / 10 10 20 0 SRQ 89 72 90 73 / 10 0 20 20 BKV 89 67 90 68 / 0 0 10 0 SPG 87 75 89 75 / 0 0 10 10
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Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
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.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
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DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Davis UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce
NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion