205 FXUS63 KPAH 211939 AFDPAHArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 239 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Transition to a wetter and more active pattern is underway. Isolated to widely scattered storms this afternoon and evening, then rain chances ramp up and remain higher through early to mid week.
- A pleasant cool down is expected with this pattern. Highs dip back down into the 70s by mid week.
&&
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
More isolated to widely scattered storms are possible this afternoon and evening as we continue to transition to a wetter and more active pattern. PoPs ramp up more overnight tonight as an upper level short wave approaches from the west. This short wave moves through on Monday making for a fairly wet day. Not confident in highs for Monday as it looks to be pretty cloudy and rainy which could keep highs lower than forecast.
Rain chances continue to be high through early to mid week. Chances are higher that we could see 2-3" of rainfall total with some locally higher amounts possible. Mid to late week temperatures come down into the 70s for a pleasant cool down. A large, possibly closed low aloft moves through Wednesday night into Thursday then opens into an open wave by Friday. This could cause some lingering PoPs through Friday afternoon then drying out over the weekend with ridging filling in behind it. Temperatures come back up to around seasonal for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
More afternoon/peak heating storms are expected to develop across the area today, though some of that development may be hindered by the extent of cloud cover present. If storms impact the terminals, there could be vsby reductions and gusty, erratic winds. Winds are out of the south and southwest this afternoon. Storm coverage looks to increase overnight into tomorrow. Winds will continue to be out of the south and southwest tomorrow around 5-10 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD AVIATION...HICKFORD
NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion