Everson, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

363
FXUS61 KPBZ 201207
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
807 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Well above normal temperatures will continue through the
weekend. There may be a few isolated showers or storms today,
but the better chance for more widespread precipitation will
not be until early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Isolated showers/storms possible with an upper trough later
  on Sunday
- Continued above normal temperatures
---------------------------------------------------------------
Dry conditions are expected for most through today with surface
ridging extending south from an area of high pressure centered
over Ontario. Mid to upper level clouds will begin to increase
from the south early this morning as moisture works in aloft in
southerly flow on the periphery of a central CONUS mid-level
trough.
The exception to the dry conditions will be along and south of
I-70 and perhaps the WV Panhandle where modest convergence
along a stalled frontal boundary and orographic ascent may be
enough to spark off a few showers/storms this afternoon. HREF
prob of SBCAPE >1000 J/kg sneaks up to around 60-70% with weak
cloud layer mean wind which points toward poor convective
organization. With higher PWAT values around 1.1-1.2" and modest
CAPE, probability for >1" of rain is actually not zero across
northern West Virginia reaching as high as 30-40%, though
rainfall will be localized.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Above average lows with isolated lingering showers
- Additional rain chances Sunday mainly west of Pittsburgh
--------------------------------------------------------------
Could see a few showers linger overnight as weak shortwave
energy traverses the area and the stationary boundary wiggles
around, but coverage should generally wane after sunset.
Overnight lows will remain mild with elevated southeasterly flow
and steady to gradually increasing dew points overnight. Fog
development should be limited given the elevated wind, but
sheltered areas or those that see some rain today could have
some after midnight.
Although conditions will be mainly dry for much of the day,
shower/storm chances will increase later on Sunday as low level
moisture advection increases instability, but there is some
uncertainty if warm air aloft keeps a lid on any convection. The
CAPE profile is slim, and shear is marginal, but the best
chance of stronger storms will be over southeastern Ohio based
off of latest guidance. Latest CSU machine learning guidance
shows no severe risk until at least Monday, and CIPs analogs do
not support severe weather in the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Increasing chances for beneficial rainfall early next week
- Downward trend in temperatures, closer to normal
- Forecast uncertainty increases by week`s end; low rain chances
  and more seasonable temperatures are favored for now
------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensembles continue to show disagreement regarding how the trough
to our west evolves next week. Some solutions suggest that a
closed, cutoff upper low may develop somewhere over the Plains
or the Mississippi Valley, while others keep the trough more
open and baggier. Regardless, next week the chances for some
much needed rainfall will increase, given the potential parade
of shortwave troughs riding across in southwest flow. The NBM
has been showing better potential for beneficial rainfall over
in the extended compared to previous runs. It suggests that
72-hour precipitation totals ending at 12Z Wednesday have a 50
to 80 percent chance of reaching at least a half-inch across
most of the region, and a 40 to 50 percent chance of reaching an
inch in eastern Ohio. Totals could be higher locally, as
convective elements/thunderstorms appear possible on a scattered
basis. At this time, joint CAPE/shear probabilities and
extended machine- learning guidance suggest that severe weather
potential appears very low. Temperatures through Tuesday night
remain above-normal but should show a downward trend given the
clouds and moisture.
Prospects for Wednesday and beyond remain murky, as much depends
on the eventual fate of the trough/upper low. The various model
clusters disagree on whether troughing remains, or whether 500mb
heights rise once again. A potential midweek frontal passage
further complicates the forecast. For now, the NBM suggestions
will be followed, with continuing but lower rain chances and a
continued slow cooling trend. Late-week high temperatures may
drop back closer to seasonal norms.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR with mostly clear sky will continue overnight save for LBE
where LIFR fog is expected to continue through sunrise.
Surface convergence and lingering mid-level moisture may yield
an isolated shower Saturday afternoon around/east of MGW but at
this time probabilities are low enough to only warrant PROB30
mention.
Winds remain light and easterly through today, with gusts
increasing to around 15-20 kts overnight into Sunday.
.OUTLOOK....
VFR is expected to continue until a series of shortwaves provide
varying rain chances Sunday through next week. While VFR is
likely to be the predominant flight category through this
timeframe, periods of heavier rain and/or patchy morning
stratocu may result in MVFR cigs.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...MLB/88
SHORT TERM...MLB/88
LONG TERM...CL/88
AVIATION...Rackley/MLB

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion