Exeter, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

846
FXUS63 KSGF 141740
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1240 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot weather to continue into the start of the week coupled with
  isolated to widely scattered afternoon rain chances.
- A mid week pattern change will initiate a cooling trend with
  better rain chances Wednesday into Thursday. Lingering low rain
  chances continue into the weekend.
- Despite the daily chances of rain...overall rainfall will be
  modest this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Meridional flow to become accentuated Sunday as an upper trough
digs further into the southern Plains, squeezing the ridge from
LA through the Great Lakes.
Upper level moisture riding the ridge will have a limited affect in
blocking insolation knocking back highs a few degrees particularly
in the west but it will still be unseasonably hot.
There will be two areas in which scattered showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms may form this afternoon.  First area will be over
eastern Kansas associated with the energy rotating around the
trough to the west and the second over the eastern Ozarks where
better buoyancy exists along the ridge axis.
By Monday the energy rotating around the trough will ride up the
ridge resulting in weak zonal flow though with the moist air mass in
place buoyancy will lead to isolated to widely scattered
diurnal convection once again. 850 mb temperatures will begin a
slow slide resulting in afternoon highs topping out a few
degrees cooler in the lower 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
As suggested by past runs, 00z models highlight a welcome
change for most to the pattern during the period as the upper
flow becomes dominated by a ridge building over the west and
northern stream energy digging a mean trough over the nation`s
midsection.
There will be daily rain chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms as the upper ridge weakens and heights begin to fall
to start the week followed by better coverage ahead an approaching
cold front Wed/Thu. Questions exist in whether the front clears or
meanders over the region which potentially maintains the rain
chances into next weekend.  All day rain outs are not expected, nor
is heavy rain...with much of the rain being light in nature.
Temperatures in this regime will trend downward back through the
80s...and potentially even drop below normal next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Medium-high confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the
entire TAF period at all sites. The medium-low portion of the
confidence comes from a very low chance for an isolated shower
to develop at any of the sites between 19-02Z. The best chances
are east of the sites, leaving a 10-20% chance of one occurring
at SGF, BBG, and/or JLN, which is too low to include in the TAF.
AMDs will be made if confidence increases.
Otherwise, winds will be south-southwesterly today at 8-12 kts,
becoming light and variable after 02-04Z. A shield of high
cirrus clouds will dominate much of the period, with a sparse cu
field also expected at 6-8 kft between 19-02Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within
5 degrees of a record.
Record High Temperatures:
September 14:
KVIH: 99/1971
September 15:
KSGF: 98/1893
KUNO: 98/1954
September 16:
KSGF: 95/2019
KVIH: 96/1954
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
September 15:
KSGF: 74/1936
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Price
CLIMATE...Nelson

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion