F B Fairfax Recreation Center Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

357
FXUS61 KCLE 151805
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
205 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region today and persist
into Friday. A warm front will lift north across the area
Friday night into Saturday ahead of a low pressure system. This
system will extend a cold front east through the area on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Outside of the potential for frost late tonight into Thursday
morning, generally quiet weather is expected for the near term
period as high pressure builds across the region.
For this morning, beginning to see radar returns across portions
of central and southern Michigan with the highest precipitation
chances likely focused along the northern half of our area
through sunrise. However, it may be difficult for much rain to
reach the surface given upstream cloud decks remaining elevated
around 9 to 10kft, in addition to mainly trace amounts of
rainfall being reported at surface observation sites.
Otherwise, high pressure will gradually build south and expand
across the Great Lakes through Thursday, leading to seasonable
temperatures in the low to mid-60s. Clear skies and light winds
late tonight will result in low temperatures falling into the
low to mid-30s across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania where a Frost Advisory remains in effect.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Active weather will become more likely for the short term
period, particularly near the end of the period Saturday night.
A more widespread threat for frost and potentially freeze
conditions is likely Thursday night into Friday morning.
High pressure will remain in control for Thursday night into
Friday with clear skies and light winds resulting in low
temperatures falling into the low to mid-30s, and perhaps even
the upper 20s in some spots across Northwest Pennsylvania.
Anticipate the frost/freeze potential will be more widespread
compared to the previous night, with headlines likely needed
west towards the I-71 corridor. Otherwise, a warm front will
lift northeast through the area Friday night into Saturday which
may result in scattered rain showers, particularly across the
northern half of the area.
Much of Saturday should stay dry ahead of the approaching system
as increasing warm air advection results in well-above average
temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80. By late Saturday
night, widespread rain and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms
will begin to arrive from the west, aided by a modest south to
southwest LLJ of around 35 knots as as a large upper- level
trough moves east through the Upper Great Lakes. The recent
suite of model guidance is perhaps a touch slower which could
delay the heavier precipitation until late Sunday morning or
early afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Active weather will continue for at least the first half of the
long term period as a cold front sweeps east through the area on
Sunday. Additional moderate to heavy rainfall and perhaps a few isolated
thunderstorms are most likely Sunday afternoon and evening,
particularly along and east of the I-71 corridor. Will need to
watch for a developing TROWAL Sunday night into Monday on the
backside of a deepening low pressure in the vicinity of the
Eastern Great Lakes, though uncertainty does begin to increase
given the volatility of the upper-level pattern.
High pressure will begin to build across the Tennessee Valley on
Monday and may expand into at least the Lower Ohio Valley,
though confidence is low on its northern extent. Another upper-
level trough is expected to race east across the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes by Tuesday, though confidence remains low on any
potential impacts across the area.
Mainly seasonable weather is expected to continue for the long
term period with highs in the low to mid-60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Mainly VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. A
mid-level cloud deck is bringing 5-10,000 foot ceilings from
CLE-CAK points west this afternoon, but will exit to the south-
southwest this evening. There are scattered cumulus in the 2,000
to 3,000 foot range, with CLE and CAK potentially seeing
transient broken MVFR ceilings from those clouds before 20z.
Mainly clear conditions are then expected tonight into Thursday.
Winds will remain out of the north-northwest at 8 to 12kt this
afternoon, slackening slightly to 

NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion