Fairwood Center, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

650
FXUS66 KOTX 022254
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
354 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Shower chances over parts of the region Friday and Saturday.
- Dry Sunday onward with chilly overnight lows falling into the
  upper 20s and 30s.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier conditions expected over the weekend into early next week
with chilly overnight lows and areas of frost. Breezy west
winds Friday shifting north Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today (Thursday) through Saturday: A 20 to 40% chance of showers
continues through this afternoon and evening primarily over
southeastern WA and ID panhandle, then recedes southeast of the
region through the night as the offshore low that has been directing
moisture into the northwest over the past few days dives south into
central California. Friday morning and afternoon will be mostly dry,
then a 30 to 60% chance of showers returns to the Cascade crest,
southeastern WA, and ID panhandle Friday evening through Saturday as
another low dropping down from over British Columbia and Alberta
pushes a band of moisture through the region. With the low dropping
into the region will come an increased west-to-east pressure
gradient resulting in westerly winds picking up through the Cascade
gaps and across the Columbia Basin with sustained speeds of 13 to 17
mph and gusts 25 to 30 mph Friday evening. Winds will shift
northwest and then north overnight Friday into Saturday, funneling
down the Okanogan Valley and the Purcell Trench with 10 to 15 mph
sustained speeds and gusts to 20 mph. Fog development is likely each
night in the more sheltered northeast mountain valleys and
potentially down to the Spokane and Ritzville areas with plenty of
boundary layer moisture left from recent rains.
Sunday through Wednesday: A pattern shift will commence as a ridge
of high pressure amplifies along the West Coast placing the Inland
Northwest in an area of dry northerly flow and bringing clear skies
and decreased precipitable water values. Afternoon high temperatures
will stay fairly consistent in the 60s to low 70s through the
period. Overnight low temperatures however will get noticeably
colder without a blanket of cloud cover and moisture in the
atmosphere to insulate the surface. Lows in the 30s are expected
across much of the region Sunday night through early next week.
Lows will moderate toward the middle of the week. Beyond Wednesday,
model consensus is poor. The ECMWF indicates a deep low pressure
system setting up over the region dropping snow levels to 4500 feet
over the Cascades, while the GEFS shows the opposite - a ridge of
high pressure leading to continued dry conditions. If the ECMWF pans
out, the Cascades could see their first substantial snow of the
season, but we will see. /RF
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Hi-res models indicate a 15 to 30 percent chance for
showers to impact LWS from 01Z to 04Z. Some clearing of clouds
is expected through the night which may lead to redevelopment of
fog for locations that have seen recent rain, but confidence in
the fog forecast is low so did not include fog in the TAFs.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions through the afternoon and
evening. Low confidence for fog to develop at GEG, SFF, COE,
PUW, LWS overnight. Fog development will depend largely on how
much clearing of clouds occurs.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        43  68  43  66  41  64 /  10   0   0  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  45  68  44  64  40  62 /  20   0   0  20  20   0
Pullman        44  63  41  61  35  62 /  30  10   0  20  20  10
Lewiston       54  69  48  66  45  65 /  40  20   0  20  20  10
Colville       32  69  33  66  30  63 /  10   0   0  10  10   0
Sandpoint      47  65  46  61  41  58 /  20   0  10  30  40  10
Kellogg        47  65  45  59  42  58 /  40  10  10  50  50  20
Moses Lake     41  71  43  69  43  67 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      46  70  49  68  45  65 /  10   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           44  70  45  67  41  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion