Falk, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

807
FXUS63 KFGF 061722
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread frost is possible tonight into Sunday morning.
  Lows are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s across much
  of the area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Scattered light showers continue across parts of northwest
Minnesota and far northeast North Dakota. Precip chances are
expected to shift progressively east through the remainder of
the afternoon before ending early this evening. Temperatures are
generally in the upper 40s to low 50s where rain is falling,
with near 60 degrees elsewhere.
UPDATE
Issued at 721 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Temperatures continued to increase in the area of the Frost
Advisory as stratus has filled in, and with peak cooling
over the threat for frost is over in that area. I went ahead and
cancelled the Frost Advisory now rather than waiting until 10am.
UPDATE
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Temperatures continue to vary across northwest MN, with a few
locations dropping to the lower 30s earlier but others already
increasing as low clouds fill in. Several bands of showers
are starting to spread into our north this morning (a little
faster than earlier CAMs) and I adjusted timing of PoPs this
morning. Overall, forecast is generally on track for scattered
showers mainly over northwest MN through the afternoon as the
mid level wave passes.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...Synopsis...
Large scale mid/upper troughing associated with the Hudson Bay low
remains in place, with northerly flow over our region. Another mid
level shortwave upstream is expected to push south bringing a
reinforcing shot of CAA and scattered showers across much of
northwest MN (maybe a few showers into eastern ND). There won`t
be a lot of instability (100 J/KG MUCAPE), however an isolated
thunderstorm with minimal lightning activity can`t be ruled out
in west central MN. The Hudson Bay low begins to break down
allowing for mid level ridging to build east. This will result
in moderating temperatures back to seasonal or event above
seasonal ranges (70s to near 80) by mid week.
There could be a chance for showers or thunderstorms in our south
Monday afternoon into Monday night as a mid level wave passes
through a much less organized westerly split-flow pattern ahead of
the ridge. BL moisture/instability do pool along a baroclinic zone
that and support a few strong storms if we see initiation in our
area. However, the signal is weak considering the lack of
consistency as the pattern breaks down/shifts. Once the ridge is in
place dry conditions should be favored until SW flow beings to
redevelop into the region Thursday into the weekend. There is strong
ensemble consensus on the general pattern evolution, with smaller
scale variances regarding mid level waves lowering confidence in
precipitation coverage or any potential impacts. ECMWF EFI and
machine learning based systems at this range are not highlighting
any period for severe weather potential in our CWA the next 7 days.
...Frost potential this morning and again Sunday morning...
Temperatures have varied early this morning due to pockets of mid
level cloud cover and sustained NW winds 6-10 mph. A few locations
have dropped to 36F at times in northwest MN within the current
Frost Advisory, but cloud cover continues to limit duration and
ultimately impacts are much more localized/limited. For now I will
keep the Frost Advisory in place through the period of peak cooling
this morning without any changes, as temperatures will tend to drop
where pockets of clearing persist. Sky cover is much more likely to
remain clear tonight into Sunday morning as subsidence builds back
into the region aloft behind the mid level wave, with lighter or
calm winds over much of the CWA due to surface ridging being
centered over our CWA. Despite some minor moderation of 925-850MB
temps aloft we should actually see the coolest night of the last 3
due to better radiational conditions. NBM shows a much better signal
for low to mid 30F temps across much of our CWA (a bit warmer in the
immediate RRV), and I could see us ultimately considering a new Frost
Advisory during the day shift period after the current one is behind
us.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
MVFR and occasional IFR conditions are expected where stratus
and shower activity persists this afternoon, with VFR
conditions elsewhere. Scattered showers continue to move east
this afternoon before tapering off early this evening. This will
mainly impact KBJI and KTVF, with lower chances to the south and
west. A few wind gusts to near 20 knots are possible this
afternoon. Winds become light and variable overnight, then
increase Sunday morning, but generally remain less than 10
knots.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Lynch/DJR
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...Lynch

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion