Fall River, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

788
FXUS63 KICT 151908
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
208 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms today and Tuesday,
  primarily in the afternoon and early evening. A strong
  thunderstorm or two is possible, though most locations will
  remain dry.
- Rain chances increase late Tuesday night into Wednesday
  morning and last into the weekend.
- Seasonably warm temperatures through Tuesday, with a cooldown
  coming mid-week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate a mid/upper
wave situated over the Northern Intermountain alongside
strengthening zonal flow aloft over the Southern Rockies. A moisture-
rich axis characterized by PWs greater than 1.4" is observable
further east on visible satellite, with its western edge stretching
from southeast Minnesota through Iowa and roughly along the Kansas
Turnpike. The latest short-term guidance highlights areas along and
to the east of this weak boundary as having the best chances for
isolated shower and perhaps weak thunderstorm coverage heading
through Tuesday. Severe weather continues to appear unlikely thanks
to weak deep-layer shear, though instability > 1500 J/kg and weak
capping may allow for a few stronger storms capable of small hail,
50-60 mph winds, and heavy rainfall. The greatest chances for these
will lie during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Model consensus highlights an upper speed max slowly moving into the
Central Plains late Tuesday night, with the associated cold front
progged to arrive in central Kansas by late Wednesday morning.
Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to
follow, with activity in the trailing airmass lasting into the
weekend. Current guidance suggests limited vertical shear through
this timeframe, which should mostly preclude chances for severe
weather. However, rich column moisture may result in heavy rainfall
and the potential for flooding with the strongest activity. Stay
tuned as we continue to refine details regarding this upcoming
system.
TEMPERATURES:
Seasonably warm high temperatures (middle to upper 80s) are forecast
for Tuesday before cooler temperatures (middle to upper 70s) arrive
on Wednesday. Limited insolation due to cloud cover is expected to
keep temperatures slightly below normal through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
VFR conditions expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
Can`t rule out an isolated shower or two along and east of the
Kansas Turnpike this afternoon and evening, but chances are too
low to include in this round of TAFs. Winds will remain light
out of the south and southwest through the TAF period.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...JC

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion