Farnham, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

916
FXUS61 KAKQ 221850
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
250 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably cool and mostly clear conditions tonight. A warm up
in temperatures from high pressure returns in the middle of this
week. Unsettled weather returns in the middle to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- High pressure remains in control, keeping rain chances
  minimal overnight.
Afternoon surface analysis reveals an expansive area of high
pressure off the New England coast wedged southward along the
Mid- Atlantic coast. The first day of fall is proving to be
quite comfortable, with temperatures in the upper 70s to near
80F and abundant sunshine. Skies will remain mostly clear
through tomorrow morning with the exception of some upper level
clouds streaming overhead, with no precipitation expected.
Tonight, lows will be near 60F and another round of patchy fog
is possible..
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Warm up Tuesday and Wednesday, as high pressure shifts to
  the south and remains in the area.
- Chance of showers/thunderstorms return Wednesday.
A positively tilted trough will set up across western/central Canada
and the Plains at the start of the work week. An upper low will
start to develop across the Central U.S. by Tuesday and slowly move
eastward. This will help to displace the surface ridge currently
wedged across the area to the south, which will allow higher
atmospheric moisture and warmer air to filter in across the region.
High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 80s inland and lower
80s near the coast. A cold front will extend from the NE to the
central US, but will likely remain to the north of the area on
Tuesday. However, there is a slight chance of showers/storms Tuesday
afternoon/evening in the piedmont and northern counties. Expect lows
Tuesday night in the mid 60s. Wednesday`s temperatures will be
similar to Tuesday in the mid 80s for most (lower 80s for the
Eastern Shore and northern counties). The cold front moves closer to
the area on Wednesday which will allow a chance of showers and
storms, mostly in the piedmont and northern counties in the
afternoon and evening. Lows Wednesday will be slightly warmer in the
upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures are likely by the middle
  and end of the week.
An expansive ridge will set up off the SE coast during the week. The
upper low and associated trough will gradually advance eastwards
through the week and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
will return by the middle of the week. A surface front will move in
tandem with the trough across the Central U.S. towards the East
Coast, and more widespread rain is expected by mid/late week as the
front gradually moves through the area. Atmospheric moisture content
will between 1.5-2.25", and with the front acting as a lifting
mechanism, our area will likely see some beneficial rainfall. With
deep atmospheric moisture, these showers will likely be efficient at
producing heavy rainfall. Luckily, there will be enough flow to push
these storms along so that should help mitigate some threat for
flash-flooding; however, if a storm trains over an area, flash-
flooding cannot be ruled out. WPC has placed a majority of our
forecast area in a Marginal ERO for both Thursday and Friday. At
this time, there increasing chances for widespread amounts of 1-2",
with locally higher amounts. High temperatures are forecast to be in
the 80s Thursday as the front likely remains to the NW. A cooler
airmass will build in behind the front through the weekend,
resulting in lows the 60s and highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Monday...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all sites.
There is a low-end chance for patchy fog development overnight,
but confidence was too low in location and timing to include
mention of BR for now. Winds will remain generally light from
the ENE, becoming variable overnight.
Outlook: Unsettled weather is expected late week with possible
sub-VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- High pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast early this week
  with sub-SCA conditions expected through much of the week.
- There is a high rip current risk through Tuesday due to swell from
  Hurricane Gabrielle.
High pressure is centered over the waters this afternoon, with light
and variable winds but ~4 ft seas due to swell from Hurricane
Gabrielle well offshore. Plan to drop all remaining SCAs for the
southern two coastal zones by 4 PM. The high will remain near the
waters through midweek, which should will result in largely benign
and sub-SCA conditions through at least Wednesday. Winds will become
southerly on Tuesday and Wednesday with speeds averaging around 10
kt. 3-4 ft seas are expected to persist through Tuesday night due to
swell from Gabrielle as it curves NE to the E of Bermuda. Sub-SCA
southerly flow persists later this week as high pressure settles off
the Southeast coast and as a cold front slowly approaches from the
NW. Seas subside to 2-3 ft with 1-2 ft waves in the Ches Bay. A
weakening cold front is progged to slowly cross the waters during
the Fri night/Sat timeframe before dropping south of the waters by
Sun. While prevailing conditions are expected to remain sub-SCA
through the week, showers/tstms are possible on Thu/Fri, which may
lead to a few SMWs (although organized severe wx isn`t expected).
There may be a period of elevated onshore flow early next week as
Canadian high pressure builds toward the area from the northern
Great Lakes.
A high rip current risk is forecast through Tuesday due to long
period swell (3-4ft/11-12s) from Hurricane Gabrielle. The rip risk
may step down to moderate by Wednesday as swell diminishes as
Hurricane Gabrielle rapidly moves E over the central Atlantic.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies remain around 1 ft above astronomical across the
middle/northern Chesapeake Bay, the tidal Potomac, and tidal
Rappahannock early this morning. Have issued a statement for
Dorchester County, MD due to forecast water levels of 3.3 ft MLLW at
Bishop`s Head with the current high tide cycle. Nuisance flooding
will likely continue through Tuesday (although additional statements
may very well not be needed).
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656-
     658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...KMC/NB
LONG TERM...KMC/NB
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...AJZ/ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion