Fayette, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

637
FXUS64 KBMX 201051
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
551 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2025
Upper level flow through the weekend will have a largely zonal
component. While not keeping the Gulf completely cut off from
moisture return, this flow pattern should help to keep deep
moisture at bay, which will in turn keep diurnal convective
development to a minimum. Having said that, the synoptic global
models and ensemble based model blends have apparently been having
a hard time with daily thunderstorm development as of late. Will
therefore hold onto the inherited 20 percent POPs over the
weekend. And despite the slight uptick in shower and thunderstorm
activity over the last few days, the ground is still quite dry
across central Alabama. This will help to continue the trend of
abnormally high afternoon temperatures.
/61/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2025
The big story in the long term is the development of a rather
significant upper level trough in the eastern half of the country
in the middle to end of next week. While the global models all
have varying versions of how that trough develops and evolves,
they do agree on the general idea of a cold front passage in the
late Wednesday to Thursday-ish time frame. Such a cold front
passage is likely to bring enhanced rain chances during the same
time frame, followed by a moderation of the warm temperatures
we`ve seen lately.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2025
Some patchy fog has developed at MGM this morning, leading to a
brief period of MVFR vis. Otherwise, VFR prevails for all other
terminals. Isolated convection is expected once again this
afternoon. Latest CAMs weren`t too convincing on any particular
terminal being impacted so have left out of the TAFs for now.
Once activity begins to develop, we will likely see some
amendments sent out. There are some signs pointing to patchy fog
developing again Sunday morning. Those that receive rain today
will have the greatest chances. Opted for TEMPO for MVFR vis for
now near sunrise tomorrow.
95/Castillo
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MinRH values will continue to stay in the 30-40% range through
the weekend, with low end rain chances remaining in the forecast.
More organized rain chances are possible later in the week, but
the scope of that remains to be seen. Otherwise, look for drought
conditions to persist across the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     93  66  92  65 /  20  20  20  10
Anniston    91  67  89  67 /  20  20  10  10
Birmingham  94  70  92  69 /  20  20  20  10
Tuscaloosa  95  69  93  68 /  20  10  20  10
Calera      94  69  92  68 /  20  20  10  10
Auburn      92  69  89  68 /  20  20   0   0
Montgomery  94  69  92  68 /  20  10  10   0
Troy        93  67  91  66 /  20   0  10   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...95/Castillo

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion