Felt Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

573
FXUS64 KAMA 072322
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
622 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Widespread cloud cover is currently in place across the Panhandles
with temperatures mainly in the 60s to low 70s. Rain showers and
thunderstorms are over New Mexico but are moving off to the east
and may start to move over the southwestern TX Panhandle starting
around midnight. Showers and isolated storms may increase a bit in
coverage tonight into tomorrow morning as a shortwave moves over
the region. For locations that do receive rain tonight, mainly
light totals of a quarter inch or less are forecast. Only minor
edits were made to the ongoing forecast through tonight.
Muscha
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
-Cool temperatures through tomorrow with accompanied rain chances
 continuing.
-Above average temperatures and dry conditions Thursday through
 the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Continued moisture transport rounding the broad H500 high pressure
system roughly centered over the northern Gulf of America, in-
conjunction with a moisture fetch from the eastern Pacific aided
by the current eastern pacific tropical activity in the Baja
California vicinity, ample cloud cover and rain chances continue
through most of the short term forecast period. Along with cloud
cover and rain, temperatures well below average continue with
latest 18Z obs show temps ranging from the 50s to lower 60s, with
not much climb up from there for today. A mid level perturbation
within the anti-cyclonic H500 regime over the southern portions
of the AZ/NM stateline should advect NE in the main moisture
advection region. This will bring another round of showers and
storms later this evening into portions of the overnight hours.
The more robust thunderstorm activity should stay to our west in
NM, but cannot completely rule out a few storms reaching portions
of the western Panhandles with locally heavy downpours, vivid
lightning, and gusty winds. Rain activity could linger through
tomorrow morning before skies slowly clear out as a low amplitude
H500 ridge from south Texas begins to build north into the
region. Temperatures tomorrow will still linger a few degrees
below average with highs in the lower to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
High pressure will begin to take shape and build into the
Panhandles region later this week through the weekend with dry
conditions expected. Temperatures will also rebound back above
average from Thursday through the weekend. Some of the latest
07/12Z global model and numerical guidance hint at a potential
pattern change into next week with some rain chances, so we will
have to watch trends closely.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
VFR conditions are ongoing at the sites but low clouds will move
in once again which will lead to MVFR to IFR ceilings. Mist and
rain showers may lead to reduced visibility as well at KDHT and
KAMA with a start time of shortly before or around 12z. Low clouds
are forecast to remain in place through 18z when clouds will lift
and VFR conditions return to the terminals. Winds will begin out
of the east to southeast but will become more southerly over the
next 24 hours with some gusts up to 20-25 kts.
Muscha
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...05

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion