Felton, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

950
FXUS62 KFFC 221100
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
700 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Key Messages:
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this
      afternoon and evening across North GA.
- Warm temps in the upper 80s and lower 90s expected through the
      short term.
Current satellite loop shows mostly clear skies with some mid to
high level clouds streaming across the region. The high pressure
ridge/wedge is still dominating the weather pattern down the
eastern seaboard but it is finally weakening and things are
beginning to change. The wedge is still entrenched across north
and central GA this morning but the models are showing it pulling
back slowly through Tuesday evening. There is also a weak frontal
boundary that exits the mid MS river valley this morning and
moves east across TN/KY today. The tail end of this boundary
begins to push into NW GA later this evening with deep layer
moisture and some increased instability spreading east ahead of
it. The wedge does not allow the frontal boundary to push to far
east today so any showers and thunderstorms that develop ahead of
it should stay confined to N and NW GA. Because of the wedge the
boundary stalls across central TN allowing the best moisture and
dynamics to move NE along it. This will keep a similar setup for
the area through Tuesday so expecting another round of diurnally
driven storms mainly across North GA. The expected storms this
afternoon and Tuesday afternoon are expected to stay below severe
limits.
High temps will be mainly in the 80s to near 90 Today and Tuesday
with some upper 70s in the NE GA mountains. Low temps will be in
the 60s.
01
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Key Messages:
- Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected during the later
parts of the week ahead of a cold front. Locally heavy rainfall will
be possible in far north GA.
- Above average temperatures are expected to persist through
Wednesday, returning to near normal due to rain.
On Tuesday night, a strong longwave trough will be extending from
the northern Great Lakes towards the Four Corners region. Over the
course of the day on Wednesday, the trough will develop into a
cutoff upper low with the southern extent swinging eastward through
the Great Plains and towards the Middle Mississippi River Valley
region. As this occurs, nearly zonal flow aloft will become oriented
in a southwesterly direction. Combined with persistent low-level
flow, this will contribute to advection of warm and moist air into
the forecast area, with Wednesday expected to be the hottest day of
the week, as a result. Morning lows will closely reflect the
dewpoints, and will begin in the upper 60s to low 70s across the
area. On Wednesday afternoon, highs are expected to rise into the
upper 80s to low 90s across the majority of north Georgia and in the
mid 90s in central Georgia. These temperatures will be as much as 8-
12 degrees above climatological normals for late September.
Considering the hot temperatures and rising dewpoints, heat index
values could potentially rise to as high as 100 in portions of south-
central Georgia during the peak heating hours on Wednesday.
An associated surface low will develop underneath the closed upper
low by late Wednesday, intensifying as it meanders into the
Midwest/Tennessee Valley region. A cold front will extend southward
from the surface low and towards the central Gulf Coast. Chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday will largely be
confined to far north Georgia on Wednesday, in closer proximity to
the moisture and ascent associated with troughing on the south side
of the closed low. The cold front will slowly approach Georgia from
the west Wednesday night through Thursday. As it does so, dewpoints
and precipitable water will continue to rise within enhanced
moisture advection downstream of the low. Deep atmospheric moisture
combined with a broad region of forcing ahead of the front will
provide a favorable setup for multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. Likely to categorical PoPs are forecast generally
along and north of the I-85 corridor on Thursday, with more
scattered thunderstorm activity to the south and east. Rain and
ample cloud cover should promote cooler temperatures in north and
west Georgia on Thursday, though highs will meanwhile rise into the
low to mid 90s in portions of central Georgia where there will be
lower rain chances and less cloud cover.
While some uncertainty remains with timing, the frontal boundary
itself is currently forecast to advance through the forecast area
late Thursday night through Friday, with the axis of likely PoPs
shifting towards central and east Georgia accordingly. For this
forecast package, rainfall totals on Thursday and Friday are
forecast to range from 0.5-1 inch in central Georgia and 1-2 inches
in north Georgia. Locations in the northern tier, particularly in
the higher elevations, could see localized amounts of 2-3 inches in
the event that stronger storms produce heavy rainfall in these
areas. As such, WPC has diagnosed a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk of
Excessive Rainfall in portions of far north Georgia for Thursday
through Friday morning. This rain should be a welcome relief for the
areas experiencing drought conditions due to the recent several week
period of little to no rainfall. Some uncertainty exists with
rainfall amounts, as the picture will become clearer as the event
enters the short term period and convective allowing models get
blended into the guidance. Still, confidence is high at this time in
higher PoPs and rainfall totals in north Georgia compared to central
Georgia.
Northwesterly low-level flow behind the front is anticipated to set
up a slightly drier and cooler (highs in the low to mid 80s) airmass
over the forecast area. However, there is disagreement among the
model solutions with respect to the upper level flow pattern -
whether the closed low redevelops into an open longwave trough and
moves away towards the Atlantic coast, or the wave breaks and the
low decouples from the upper jet and stalls over the Southeast. The
former solution would favor drier conditions in the coming weekend,
while the latter solution would pull moisture in from the Atlantic
and favor lingering rain chances.
King
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
VFR ceilings and VSBYs expected today. Will see another round of
isolated SHRA/TSRA this afternoon/evening but thinking mainly
confined to North GA so keeping the SHRA/TSRA out of the TAFs.
Winds are light and variable this morning but will be mainly out
of the SE in the 3-8kt range this afternoon and evening. Will see
winds turn to the SW Tue morning by 14z-16z.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          85  64  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         87  68  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     79  61  82  62 /  20  10  20  10
Cartersville    88  66  90  68 /  10  10  10  10
Columbus        91  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     85  64  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
Macon           88  66  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            89  67  91  68 /  20  10  10  10
Peachtree City  88  65  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         89  68  91  69 /  20   0  10   0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...01

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion