Fifth Ward, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

780
FXUS64 KLCH 061124
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
624 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to return today
  as moisture pools ahead of a cold front that will push through
  the region early Sunday.
- Slightly below normal temperatures, especially night time lows,
  and noticeably drier air is expected in the wake of the front
  early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
The main story in the short term will be a cold front located
currently over northeast Texas int southwest Arkansans will gradually
push south into and through the forecast area over the weekend that
will bring much drier and cooler conditions by the end of the period.
For today, moisture will be increasing ahead of a pre-frontal trough
and outflow boundary with PWAT values between 1.80 and 2 inches with
mean layer relative humidity above 70 percent. Therefore, initial
band of showers is expected right around daybreak for central
Louisiana and upper southeast Texas, then scattered showers and
thunderstorms reforming in the afternoon with low level convergence
and daytime heating.
The cold front is expected to move through and into the coastal
waters early Sunday morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms
continuing until later in the afternoon when the significantly drier
air begins to filter in.
This should leave a nice Monday with frontal boundary offshore.
Drier air will mean less humid conditions and no chance for
significant shower activity.
Rua
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
The long term looks like it will be dominated by a series of high
pressure systems ridging down from the north, with mainly dry
northwest flow aloft. Therefore, dry conditions are expected with
very little if any chance for significant shower activity.
The drier air will also help bring about the potential for some
below climatological normal temperatures, especially during the
night for lows, and less humid conditions during the daytime.
Looks like the "coolest" temperatures will start off the period on
Tuesday morning with NBM showing lows in the upper 50s for central
Louisiana and low to mid 60s down to the I-10 corridor. It should be
noted that the deterministic NBM temperatures during that morning
are at or below the 25th percentile of the ensemble whisker plot.
However, there is support from both the GFS and ECMWF MOS to see low
temperatures at those values so will keep on with the NBM lows.
Rua
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving south and may impact
AEX between 12Z and 15Z. Gusty winds along with MVFR/IFR CIG and
VIS will be the main impacts.
Elsewhere VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period with a
chance for afternoon thunderstorms at all terminals until sunset.
Winds will be from the north-northeast around 10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
light onshore flow and low seas will continue today until a cold
front moves through the coastal waters tonight. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will also increase ahead of the front. A modest
offshore flow will occur behind the front into Sunday. Offshore
winds along with seas will be increasing on Monday as high pressure
builds down from the Midwest.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Moisture will increase today ahead of a cold front that will bring a
chance for showers and thunderstorms into Sunday. Afternoon minimum
relative humidity are expected to be near or above 60 percent today
and near or above 50 percent on Sunday. Significantly drier air will
move in by Monday, ending rain chances and bringing afternoon
minimum relative humidity values below 40 percent.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  86  66  85  62 /  40  10  10   0
LCH  90  72  88  69 /  30  10  20  10
LFT  90  71  89  67 /  20  10  10  10
BPT  91  72  88  69 /  30  20  40  20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion