Fillmore, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

125
FXUS61 KBUF 042200
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
600 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and clear skies will persist through the rest of the
weekend along with well above normal temperatures. A cold front will
then bring some much needed rainfall to the region Tuesday through
Tuesday night. High pressure will then build into the Great Lakes
with another long stretch of dry and much cooler weather Wednesday
through the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong high pressure surface and aloft will remain anchored along
and just offshore of the eastern seaboard tonight through Sunday,
providing clear skies to the region. There will be a small amount of
river valley fog across the Southern tier late tonight through
Sunday morning, mainly along the upper Allegheny and upper Genesee
rivers and tributaries.
Temperatures will drop back into the low to mid 50s in most areas
tonight, with some 40s in the typical colder valleys of the Southern
Tier and Tug Hill region. Highs Sunday will be nearly 20F above
average, with low to mid 80s in most areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure ridging at all levels will slide east and away from
the East Coast early through the first half of the week as a
gradually sharpening mid-level trough moves out of the Northern
Plains and across the Great Lakes. Dry weather and continued summer-
like temperatures will hold out through Monday as forecast area lies
within the upstream system`s warm sector. A cold front and
associated prefrontal trough will then begin to encroach on the
region from the northwest later Monday night through Tuesday, with
chances for widespread showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms
ramping up in tandem.
In regards to relief from the drought conditions, widespread QPF
amounts of 0.5-1.0" through Tuesday night seem probable based on
latest NBM/LREF data, though the NBM is more bullish overall and
shows about a 30-40% chc of higher amounts away from the Genesee
Valley. Would expect this potential to depend on the timing of more
favorable upper level jet dynamics and exact locations of where
isolated pockets of convection manage to form later Tuesday. While
uncertainty remains high especially in regards to the latter, latest
guidance indicates the best chances of higher rainfall amounts being
found across the western Southern Tier and southern Tug Hill region.
Following the FROPA Tuesday night, a strong 1032mb sfc high will
quickly build back into the region from the Upper Great Lakes. This
should bring a swift end to any showers or lingering tstorm activity
early Wednesday. CAA with 850mb temps falling into the low single
digits through the day could lead to a bit more in the way of cloud
cover south of the lakes, though the airmass looks far too dry to
support any lake enhanced precip. In any case, sfc high temps are
expected several degrees below average Wednesday, topping out mainly
in the 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The brief stretch of below average temperatures is expected to last
through Thursday as a cool post-frontal airmass lingers over the
region. Wednesday night in particular looks to be quite chilly with
low temperatures ranging in the 30s. This could be a rather
favorable setup for frost development, especially away from the Lake
Plains as strong sfc high pressure sits just north of the region
with a very dry airmass likely promoting clear skies and light winds.
The high will shift east with the ridge axis centered along much of
the coastline by Friday, before it shuffles out into the western
Atlantic by the weekend. Return flow on the backside should allow
for moderating temps back towards climatological averages, though
another trough moving across the Great Lakes in the wake of the high
could bring additional rainfall later in the week. High uncertainty
in the details at this range so PoPs remain in generally 15-30%
territory.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure surface and aloft will remain anchored along the
eastern seaboard tonight through Sunday. This will maintain clear
skies and VFR. The one exception will be some patchy river valley
fog with IFR across the Southern Tier late tonight through Sunday
morning, mainly east of KJHW.
Outlook...
Monday...Mainly VFR. Patchy river valley fog and IFR across the
Southern Tier late Monday night through Tuesday morning.
Tuesday and Tuesday night...Areas of MVFR with showers likely and a
chance of a thunderstorm.
Wednesday...areas of MVFR CIGS early, improving to VFR.
Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Light winds and minimal wave action expected on area lakes through
Sunday, providing fantastic late season boating conditions.
South to southwest winds pickup Monday ahead of a cold front which
will produce some chop on area lakes. Showers likely and possibly a
few thunderstorms Tuesday through Tuesday night as a cold front
moves through the region.
Winds turn northwesterly and freshen behind the frontal passage with
possible small craft headlines needed late Tuesday night and
Wednesday, especially on Lake Ontario.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...AR/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...AR

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion