Firesteel, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

600
FXUS63 KABR 012026
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
326 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Saturday. Highs
will be in the 80s, and even low 90s Friday. These readings are 20-
25 degrees above normal.
- Southerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will diminish through the
early evening hours.
- Saturday and Sunday will be windy, with at least a 20 percent
chance of gusts at or above 45 mph each afternoon.
- A cold front will bring a 60 to 80% chance of rain Saturday night
into Sunday over mainly central and north central SD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Our very warm and mainly dry trend will continue through at least
Saturday. Highs will again be in the 80s Thursday, with much lighter
winds as the surface trough currently set up from north central ND
through western SD moves to eastern SD Thursday morning and into MN
in the afternoon.
Behind the trough we`ll see southerly winds returning, helping to
usher slightly warmer air in for Friday. Highs Friday will be in the
upper 80s to low 90s. The pressure gradient will continue to
increase Friday as the low to our west becomes better organized over
eastern MT/WY/ND, with afternoon gusts in the 30 mph range across
much of central SD. Friday night could bring light showers to mainly
central SD, and we`ll have to monitor the latest trends for possible
inclusion in future forecasts.
By 06Z Saturday the surface low is expected to move over western SD
through central SD. Slight changes on the timing of this feature
will make for significant differences in our sensible weather
(clouds cover, temperatures, wind speed and direction). The
elongated low looks to be over mainly central SD by 00Z Sunday and
deepen/consolidate over portions of southeastern ND by 12Z Sunday.
A windy weekend is forecast, and wind headlines are likely. On
Saturday, winds are forecast to gust out of the south 35 to 45 mph
from south central to northeastern South Dakota and west central
Minnesota. Winds and continued dry conditions could result in fire
weather conditions, especially during harvest season. We will
highlight the need for monitoring the latest forecast, farm
equipment maintenance, and safety in some social media graphics.
On Sunday, winds will be switching out of the northwest behind a
cold front, gusting 35 to near 50 mph. Several ensemble members in
the 00Z run of the EC have wind gusts at or above 50 mph forecast
for Sunday. This is a significant difference/increase from 24 hours
ago. The ECMWF extreme forecast index and shift of tails highlight
much of the area east of the Missouri River for the potential need
for at least a Wind Advisory Saturday and Sunday. We will see if
this trend continues, but will at least highlight the potential for
planning purposes.
The cold front late Saturday and Sunday will bring our next chance
of wet weather for the entire region. There is a 50% chance of
receiving over 0.25" of rain Saturday night through Sunday northwest
of a line over the northwestern half of South Dakota, and around an
80% chance near Mobridge (north central SD). As noted on the
previous discussion, thunderstorms will be possible near/along the
cold front. NCAR medium-range real-time convective hazard forecasts
back this up and we`ll may need to be watching for the potential or
damaging winds or hail. Given the strong winds just above the
surface, damaging winds will likely be the main concern.
The consensus is for drier weather and lighter winds late Sunday
evening and Monday as high pressure shifts across the area. Lows in
the mid 30s and low 40s look common Monday morning through Wednesday
morning.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are expected through Thursday morning, with
isolated rain showers are possible late this evening and
overnight along the low level jet over northeastern SD. Southerly
winds are expected over eastern SD, though central SD will see
winds shifting to the west northwest later in the afternoon
through the overnight hours as the low level jet moves to the
east. Wind gusts this afternoon could get up to 25 to 30kts over
central and northeastern SD, with winds starting to diminish from
the west to east during the afternoon and evening as the low
level jet starts to weaken. Gusts of around 20 kts over the
Prairie Coteau continue through most of overnight hours as the low
level jet sticks around over that area and decrease during the
early morning hours. Low level wind shear looks to be a concern
tonight after 05z to the northeast of KATY, and will need to be
watched for as we get closer to that time.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...12

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion