First View, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

485
FXUS63 KGLD 191127
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
527 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog may develop across portions of the area this
  morning.
- Conditional potential for strong to severe storms along/east
  of Hwy 25 this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest
  storms would be capable of large to very large hail, damaging
  winds a low chance of a tornado.
- Above average temperatures will return over the weekend, with
  highs in the mid 80`s on Sat-Sun.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 227 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Mainly clear skies are in place across the forecast area. The
exception is across the southwest where the effects of weak 700mb
wave is generating some cloud cover with a 10-15% chance of it
leading to light showers that move to the northeast across the area
through the late morning hours. Winds across the area are mainly
light with the lightest being roughly along and east of a Yuma to
Gove county line where light and variable winds are being observed
due to surface high in place. With dew point depressions already
being less than 2 degrees would not be surprised if some fog
develops over the next few hours (as long as cloud cover from the SW
doesn`t interfere. Not overly excited about dense fog potential due
to low difference between the surface and 1km mixing ratios but
still can`t rule out an isolated instance or two of dense fog.
An 850mb jet of 20-30 mph is forecast to shift in a SW to NE
oriented direction where a period of breezy winds is forecast to
occur from roughly Cheyenne Wells to Goodland to Atwood this morning
where some wind gusts up to 30 mph may occur, elsewhere winds are
forecast to be lighter from the surface high to the east and an
approaching surface trough to the northwest. High temperatures for
the day are forecast to be a tad warmer due to the anticipated
southwesterly winds as high temperatures are forecast in the
low to mid 80s. Across the northeast did nudge temperatures down
a bit due to the potential for stratus to move in during the
late morning which would cap temperature potential. If the
stratus does move in and hold strong some areas may not get out
of the 60s. Thus far the RAP is the only guidance suggesting
that scenario so will not totally buy in to it as of yet, but is
something to be aware of that high temperatures across the
northeast may be 10 degrees to warm.
The main focus for the day will be on the severe weather potential.
A potent shortwave is forecast to develop on the backside of a low
pressure system across the northern Plains. An 80-85 knot 250mb jet
streak is also forecasted to develop to provide upper level
support for any storms that develop from the shortwave.
Confidence is increasing that storms will form as early as 2pm
CT with the favored area being east of a Hitchcock to Thomas
county line. Wind shear is favorable for supercells with nearly
all guidance suggesting 40-50 knots of 0-6km effective shear.
The caveats with severe weather potential is that lapse rates
are rather meager around 6.5-7.0 c/km and ML CAPE is around
800-1300 j/kg so we may run into the issue of storms potentially
being sheared apart before they can fully sustain themselves.
Nearly all guidance has consistently been convecting storms for
at least the past 24 hours now which is also helping increase
confidence. However, some of the newest 06Z guidance is leaning
more towards the area remaining stable scenario. A few caveats
are in place though that may impact intensity including the
potential for some stratus to move into the area from the
northeast which may help stabilize the environment. Due to the
forcing storms would still develop but would be less intense.
With the current parameters in place large to very large hail
would be the main concern with hail potentially up to 3 inches
in size. With the stronger jets in place as the 850mb jet will
still be located across the area damaging winds are also
possible. There also does appear to be a conditional tornado
threat as well if a storm can get rooted onto a southward moving
boundary and still ingesting in warmer air from the south. As a
the low level jet increases during the evening the storms may
grow upscale into a southeastward moving cluster with damaging
winds being the main concern. Any storm activity is forecast to
be out of the area around 12am CT. Into Saturday morning an
overall strong signal for stratus to move into the area. Dense
fog may also be of concern but will be highly dependent on the
amount of cloud cover, if any, left over from the potential
storms this afternoon and evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Sat-Sun: Guidance suggests that a complex, disjointed synoptic
pattern characterized by (1) a sinuous, speedy northern stream
jet at higher latitudes in Canada and (2) a speedy, increasingly
sinuous southern stream jet along the southern Pacific Coast,
Desert Southwest and 4-Corners.. will prevail over North America
this weekend. While the Tri-State area will be in closest
proximity to (and more likely to be influenced by) the southern
stream jet.. a fractured branch of the northern stream jet
(manifesting as slow moving/nearly-stalled waves over the
Northern Plains) will no doubt introduce additional complexity/
uncertainty to the evolution of the upper level pattern (and
sensible weather conditions) over the Central Plains. Expect
increasing upper level cloud cover.. orographic cirrus, in
particular.. which may temper highs over western portions of the
area. Considerable uncertainty with regard to precipitation
chances.
Mon-Wed: Long range guidance suggests that a closed low will
develop over the central-northern Rockies or High Plains early
next week. If this is the case.. one would expect active/
dynamic weather. Below average confidence in forecast specifics.
Forecast confidence typically decreases with range. Below
average, in this context, is intended to communicate a further
reduction in confidence associated with /inherent-to/ increased
pattern complexity, e.g. patterns characterized by cut-off waves
and multi-branched jet/wave interactions, among other factors.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Patchy fog potential this morning for MCK seems to be transient
to when winds can go calm as a surface high is in place across
eastern portions of the forecast area. Have included a tempo for
MVFR visibilities but if winds can go calm for an extended
period of time then IFR or lower can`t be ruled out. GLD is the
opposite issue a developing 850mb jet is mixing down some
breezier winds. Could see some sporadic gusts around 20 knots
before the nocturnal inversion fully erodes then wind gusts up
to 25 knots is possible. MCK this afternoon has a 20% chance of
being impacted or impacts in the vicinity of the terminal of a
thunderstorm, potentially strong to severe. Confidence is not
high enough in impacts to the terminal so will not include in
this set of TAFS. Seeing a strong signal for stratus for the end
of this TAF period, fog may be possible but will depend on
cloud cover from storm potential today.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Trigg

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion