Flanary, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

354
FXUS63 KJKL 270629 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
229 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few showers will be possible Saturday, mainly for areas near
  the Virginia border.
- Expect drier weather and more sunshine to return on Sunday.
- We are monitoring the evolution of Potential Tropical Cyclone
  Nine. Confidence is low on the timing and impacts, if any, for
  eastern Kentucky from this system.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
The late evening update is mainly for PoPs from now through 18z
Saturday. The overall trend is a tier or two of counties more
easterly with the distribution of PoPs, as indicated by the NBM,
and thus the updated PoPs match this trend. The remainder of the
forecast is on track, with minimal changes at this time.
UPDATE Issued at 701 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
Freshened grids with the latest observations, but overall there
was little in the way of changes to the forecast for this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
Reviewing the 15Z surface analysis, the frontal boundaries that
impacted the area earlier this week have now tracked eastward off
the Atlantic seaboard. However, a lingering surface low pressure
center remains, positioned south of the JKL CWA and centered over
northern Georgia. Locally, the JKL CWA is currently under the
influence of weak surface high pressure.
Through the remainder of the day and the rest of the forecast
period, the slow-moving upper-level trough, which was responsible
for the convective activity earlier in the week, will continue to
influence the region as it becomes more neutral and eventually quasi-
stationary. This trough is expected to persist throughout the
period. Favorable upper-level divergence, combined with forecast
streamlines showing elevated 1000 mb to 500 mb RH values, indicates
optimal moisture transport fetch of Gulf moisture into the
southeastern portions of the CWA. This combination will favor these
locations for the highest probabilities of afternoon showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Conversely, northerly flow along the western
periphery of the trough will advect drier air into the northwestern
portions of the CWA, thereby limiting the potential for afternoon
convection in those areas. Any shower or thunderstorm that does
develop will rapidly dissipate toward sunset. Overnight clearing is
expected each night, potentially leading to locally dense valley fog.
Overall, the forecast period will be highlighted by low-end
precipitation chances, primarily across the southeastern portions of
the CWA. High temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 70s
to low 80s, with overnight lows falling into the mid-to-upper 50s to
near 60.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
The main theme for the extended period is uncertainty and low
confidence on the evolution of the tropical systems specifically the
developing tropical formation over the southern Bahamas. This system
is forecast to become a tropical depression soon and move north to
northwest into the Atlantic Ocean. The ensemble analysis of shows a
much more muted system then the deterministic GFS and ECMWF.
There is also big differences between the deterministic GFS and
ECMWF on the track, timing and strength of this low.  Phasing of
this tropical storm with the persistent but weakening upper low over
the southeast United States and Appalachians is a big question.
For Sunday, ensemble analysis and deterministic models show the
upper trough closing off over the southeast United States/Southern
Appalachians. Northerly flow aloft will dry the area-mass over the
region. More sunshine and mostly dry conditions. Only the far
eastern counties have a slight chance of showers.
For next week (especially Tuesday through Friday), weakening upper
low over the southeast United States/Southern Appalachians remains
cut-off. The evolution of this upper trough/low will play a major
role in how the tropical system affect the central and southern
Appalachians. Confidence is low of tropical track, timing and
impacts over east Kentucky.
Mean ensemble QPF depicts only light amounts over east Kentucky
during this period, but again there is low confidence on rainfall
potential through much of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2025
VFR was occurring at the TAF sties at issuance time, while some
MVFR and IFR in fog or low stratus was reported at KBYL, KI35, as
well as KCPF and is indicative of reductions in fog at non TAF
site valley locations. Fog is expected to affect valley and some
non TAF site locations through as late as 13Z to 14Z until it
lifts and dissipates. Some fog could drift into a TAF site or
two, with KLOZ and KSME having the best chances for this occurring
and at both locations have continued with couple of hours of MVFR
reductions between 09Z and 13Z. A lingering upper level low over
the Southern Appalachians could lead to a shower or perhaps a
thunderstorm reaching as far northwest as KLOZ to KJKL to KSJS
between 12Z and 23Z but chances will be highest south of the TAF
sites. Light and variable winds will prevail through around 15Z,
with north winds at less than 10KT prevailing through 22Z, before
winds once again become light and variable. Some reductions in fog
at valley locations may occur late in the period, but at this
point, TAF sites are not expected to be affected.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...JP

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion