Flint Hills National Wildlife Refuge, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

681
FXUS63 KTOP 182032
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
332 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain and shower chances persist this afternoon and into the
the evening before mostly dry conditions build in for Friday.
- A few storms this afternoon may become strong, producing small
hail and gusty winds. Not expecting widespread strong storms.
- Scattered rain and storm chances return Saturday morning and
afternoon with another round Saturday night into Sunday morning.
- An active weather pattern sets up next week with cooler
temperatures and low-end precipitation chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Mid-level water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a stalled upper
low over the northern Plains with a trough axis extending south into
central Kansas, an additional lobe of vorticity exiting off the lee
of northern MT Rockies and weak ridging over the southeast and
southwestern US. Across northeast Kansas, the aforementioned trough
axis has kept scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms
across the area with a subtle MCV rotation near the
Abilene/Manhattan area. This seems to be the main concentration of
forcing within the wave and should continue to move east/northeast
through the afternoon today. Some storms that develop this afternoon
could perk up quickly given the 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 25-30
knots of 0-6km bulk shear. If an updraft can become tall enough and
remain sustained, some small hail and gusty winds could accompany a
storm or two. That said, widespread strong storms are not
anticipated. Showers and storms should come to an end this evening,
scattering out clouds from west to east as subsidence on the
backside of the wave builds into north-central Kansas. If clouds can
clear out efficiently overnight tonight, could expect some fog to
develop across the area, possibly dense in spots through sunrise
Friday. The remainder of Friday will be drier and warmer than today
with temperatures topping out in the low 80s.
By early Saturday morning, another lobe of vorticity within the
stalled upper low will push into northeastern Kansas as a LLJ
strengthens across south-central Kansas. The nose of the jet should
stall around central Kansas leading to some scattered elevated
showers and thunderstorms with some additional showers near the
KS/NE border closer to the mid-level wave. Precipitation moves east
through the remainder of the morning before another weak wave moves
east out of western Kansas. Most guidance keeps this wave tracking
along the southern half of Kansas. This leads to believe that the
best chance for afternoon and evening rain/storms will remain along
and south of I-70. Most instability needed for stronger/severe
convection should stay along a warm front in south and southeastern
Kansas, so any stronger storms Saturday should remain south of the
area. That said, if the mid-level wave tracks a bit further north,
expect an associated northern shift for storms chances. Generally,
best chances for rain and storms Saturday should be along and south
of I-70.
Isentropic ascent increases within a LLJ Saturday night into Sunday
morning, leading to scattered elevated showers and storms. A brief
break in precipitation chances should build in by Sunday afternoon
before our next mid-level wave enters the region by Sunday evening
and overnight into Monday morning. The best isentropic ascent
associated with the nocturnal jet should exist across east-central
Kansas where more chances for elevated showers and storms will be
possible into Monday morning.
An active pattern continues into next week as a deep closed low is
progged to dig south out of the PNW, potentially merging with
another low in the southwestern US. Mid-level shortwaves ejecting
out ahead of these cutoff lows will continue to keep low-end PoPs in
the area through much of the week next week. Luckily, temperatures
for the next several days and into next week are expected to be
around or below average, topping out in the mid 70s to low 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Scattered showers and a few storms will be the main aviation
impacts for this afternoon and early evening, but outside a
thunderstorms moving over a terminal and reducing conditions
briefly to MVFR, expect VFR CIGs and visibilities to remain
common. After showers and storms move out by this evening, some
fog development may become an issue at all terminals, but
confidence is still low/medium in development due to
uncertainty in how much clear we will see overnight. If we can
get several hours of clearing, patchy to possibly widespread
dense fog will be possible Friday morning, burning off a few
hours after sunrise.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion