389 FXUS63 KSGF 130756 AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 256 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions continue, with low chances for afternoon pop-up thunderstorms each afternoon.

- Pattern change could be coming late next week with more seasonal temperatures and potentially higher precipitation chances.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

The synoptic pattern is still dominated by an upper level ridge that extends across much of the Plains and Midwest with deep 500 mb troughs on either side. The ridge is losing its vertical continuity, and there appears to be some weak diffluence in the midlevels as high pressure churns over the southeast and low pressure begins to encroach on the High Plains. The surface pattern is also becoming more interesting; energy from the High Plains low appears to be riding around the ridge of the high pressure, resulting in a shortwave through Iowa that wraps down through Illinois (generally the Mississippi River basin).

With an eye on this energy, dominant high pressure will still bring us mostly sunny skies and hot conditions with highs in the 90s today. NBM interquartile temperature spreads continue to be less than five degrees through the middle of next week, and deterministic values have been spot-on the last few days.

This evening, the shortwave appears to result in a mesovortex-type feature in the vicinity of the bootheel. This is best resolved in the HREF mean MSLP, but generally is hard to capture given the small scale. It appears to provide enough energy to kick off a few showers in eastern MO that slingshot around in a clockwise manner and make their way through our area. All of the CAMs have their own version of this scenario, with some breaking out much wider coverage than others. The most likely areas to see showers will be along and east of Hwy 65. Ensemble means don`t show more than a few hundredths for rainfall totals, and no robust upper-level support will keep these showers quite tame. Sufficient CAPE could assist with a few rumbles of thunder, though.

Sunday, the trough to the west starts to lift to our northwest. While we primarily remain under the influence of the ridge, a few models are breaking out showers along a front that may extend down from the low pressure center. This seems entirely dependent on moisture return partially aided by the mesovortex forecast to develop Saturday evening. Presently, there is not much to support widespread/high precipitation chances Sunday, though there could be some pop-up showers again east of Hwy 65. If the setup becomes more clear as things unfold tomorrow, these chances could change. Otherwise, similar temperatures for Sunday with highs in the 90s and lows int he 60s to near 70.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Monday we will start to feel like we`re under the ridge again, with clouds clearing out and continued hot temperatures. No significant precipitation is expected, but the heat could result in free convection and spotty storms each afternoon with peak heating. This holds through midweek before a stronger trough and cutoff low move through the area. This will bring higher precipitation chances (up to 50%) Wednesday and Thursday and, at long last, a reduction in temperatures to more seasonal values in the 80s. Location and timing the precipitation will come with better ensemble model agreement, but the overall breakdown in the ridge pattern is well-agreed upon.

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. Light south- southwesterly winds and mostly clear skies today, with cloud cover becoming more dense this evening and overnight.

.CLIMATE... Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within 5 degrees of a record.

Record High Temperatures:

September 13: KSGF: 99/2011 KVIH: 96/1956 KUNO: 96/1980

September 14: KVIH: 99/1971

September 15: KSGF: 98/1893 KUNO: 98/1954

September 16: KSGF: 95/2019 KVIH: 96/1954

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 15: KSGF: 74/1936

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None.

SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Nelson CLIMATE...Nelson

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion