Fort Ann, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

549
FXUS61 KALY 050107
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
907 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025
.UPDATE...
As of 907 pm EDT...This update is based on the latest radar
trends and CAMs. The bands of showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms continue across eastern NY and western New
England. The latest SPC RAP mesoanalysis had less than 500 J/kg
of MUCAPE over the forecast area from Albany north and west.
The 00Z KALY sounding has weak instability with 253 J/kg. We
kept a slight chance of thunderstorms in until midnight. The
back edge of the showers is near the western Adirondacks. We
retooled the PoPs to have the showers end west of the Hudson
River Valley around 06Z/2 AM EDT. Rainfall has generally been
one to two tenths of an inch an hour (moderate in intensity) with
locally higher amounts based on the NYS Mesonet. The heaviest
rainfall will fall north and west of the Capital Region. Lows
are falling back into the 50s and 60s. The rain diminish east of
the Hudson River Valley between 08Z-10Z/Fri.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region overnight with showers and a
few thunderstorms. Mainly dry weather returns on Friday before
another cold front brings another round of widespread rain and
thunderstorms on Saturday. Behind this front, tranquil weather
and below normal temperatures are expected for much of next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message
- A beneficial rainfall is expected through tonight with the
   potential for a few stronger thunderstorms across western
   areas into this evening.
Discussion:
A warm and breezy afternoon is underway across eastern New York
and western New England as temperatures have risen into the 70s
and even some lower 80s across some valley areas. Winds, as
expected, have also picked up with frequent gusts between 25-35
mph already observed. These conditions will continue through the
afternoon hours ahead of an approaching cold front to the west.
The environment across western areas is slightly unstable with
MLCAPE values up to 500 J/kg and around 35 kt of bulk shear. An
initial band of showers and thunderstorms along a prefrontal
trough (ahead of the main front) should begin to reach western
areas between 3-5pm and slowly advance eastward into the
evening. This line has had a history of producing wind gusts
over 40 mph and reports of tree damage so will continue to
monitor for a potential strong to locally severe storm. A
Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms continues for these
areas. As this line advances farther east toward the Hudson
Valley and points east, the loss of daytime heating, combined
with encountering a more stable and lower shear air mass, should
end severe weather potential and even thunder chances through
the evening and overnight hours. Still some periods of rain will
occur through much of the night. The highest precipitation
amounts still look to occur across areas mainly north and west
of the Hudson Valley where more convective elements are
anticipated (0.25 to 0.75 inches) with lesser amounts farther
south and east. Still, most if not all locations should see at
least some measurable rainfall tonight. Temperatures tonight
will fall back to the upper 40s to lower 60s.
By Friday morning, most if not all shower activity will have
moved off to the north and east. The cold front will begin to
wash out just to our east. A lack of upper forcing will result
in mostly dry weather and another warm and breezy day. Highs
once again will reach the 70s to lower 80s. Forcing for ascent
will begin to increase once again Friday night as another cold
front approaches from the west. An increase in moisture with the
front will develop some rain showers for areas mainly north and
west of Albany. Lows will dip back into the lower 50s to
mid-60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:
- Another round of rainfall and thunderstorms is expected on
  Saturday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are also
  possible for areas south and east of Albany.
- The first frost of the fall season is possible across portions
  of the southern Adirondacks early next week.
Discussion:
A potent upper level trough will remain centered over the Great
Lakes as multiple shortwaves round the base of the trough toward
our region. An additional cold front will begin to cross the
area from northwest to southeast as one or multiple waves of low
pressure track along the front. Moisture will increase ahead of
the front with precipitable water values on the order of 1.25 to
1.75 inches. Favorable forcing for ascent with the approaching
shortwave and being located within the right entrance region of
an upper level jet will bring another round of much needed
rainfall. A more stratiform rainfall is expected for areas north
and west of Albany (or areas behind the front). For areas south
and east, there is the potential for some convective showers and
thunderstorms should enough instability develop. Guidance is
still suggesting the potential for 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE
develops south and east of Albany along with around 40 kt of
shear. This could support some strong to severe thunderstorms
and will be dependent on overall timing and position of the
front. Will monitor trends over the coming days. A temperature
gradient is expected ahead and behind the front with values in
the upper 50s/lower 60s across the Adirondacks to the mid-80s in
the mid- Hudson Valley into NW CT.
Most of the precipitation and front itself will be to the south
and east of the region by Sunday as the upper level trough
begins to slide eastward over our region. Cooling aloft combined
with additional upper level forcing could lead to some lake-
effect/enhanced showers which may graze the Adirondacks on
Sunday, otherwise it will be a cooler and drier day with highs
only in the 60s and 70s. Much of the remainder of the week looks
dry but seasonably cool as high pressure builds back over the
region. Highs for the rest of the week will generally be in the
60s and 70s. Lows will be mainly in the 40s each night though
some higher elevations will likely dip into the mid to upper 30s
some night, especially the Adirondacks.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thru 00Z Sat...VFR conditions will lower to MVFR levels as
showers move into KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF between 00Z-03Z/FRI.
The visibilities will lower to 3-5SM in the showers. The cigs
will gradually lower to low MVFR/borderline IFR levels between
03Z-06Z in the moistening low-levels and showers. The best
chance for IFR cigs will be KPSF, but KGFL could be close. The
showers associated with the frontal boundary should diminish by
07Z-10Z/Fri. The IFR/MVFR cigs will linger until 12Z-15Z/FRI,
but then should gradually rise with the weakening cold front
moving through. Expect a trend to VFR conditions by the late
morning into the afternoon with sct-bkn cumulus and some mid
level clouds around.
The winds will be south to southeast 8-15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT
early tonight before weakening to south/southwest at less than
10 KT after midnight. The winds will increase from south to
southwest at 8-12 KT with some gusts close to 20 KT in the late
morning through the afternoon. A brief period of LLWS is
expected at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF until 04Z-06Z/FRI, as the sfc winds
become light under 10 KT and the 2 kft AGL winds are 35-40 KT.
Outlook...
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday to Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wasula
SYNOPSIS...Main/Rathbun/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Wasula

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion