Fort Carson, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

742
FXUS65 KPUB 252300
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
500 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer on Friday, with scattered showers/t-storms returning
  to the mountains along the Continental Divide.
- Showery weekend in the mountains, especially along the
  CONTDVD; mainly dry plains. Slightly cooler all areas both
  days.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Mostly clear and cool tonight with ridge overhead, and a few of
the usually cool mountain valleys (Upper Rio Grande especially)
will again drop to near/slightly below freezing by early Fri
morning. Given widespread frost/light freeze over the San Luis
Valley this morning and slightly warmer forecast min temps,
won`t issue a Frost Advisory for the Valley for tonight/Fri
morning, though some of the usually colder spots along the Rio
Grande may get close to freezing for a brief period toward
sunrise.
Upper ridge flattens and drifts east on Friday as upper wave
moves across the nrn U.S. and upper level low inches eastward
into AZ. As a result, mid level moisture plume and thunderstorms
over UT/AZ/NV today will shift eastward into at least wrn
Colorado on Friday, with a few afternoon showers/storms along
the Continental Divide, best chance ern San Juans. Not expecting
much rain initially with any activity as low levels remain dry,
with lightning/sprinkles/gusty winds the main storm features.
Despite slightly lower 300/500 mb heights, low/mid level temps
actually warm a couple degf Fri, and with lee surface trough
slightly deeper on the plains, better mixing should lead to
warmer max temps at many locations, and a few spots from Pueblo
eastward through the lower Arkansas Valley could at least
approach 90f.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Closed low over the southwest CONUS will continue to slowly push
east and this southerly flow in advance of this system will continue
to increase the moisture over the mountains. Overall best chance of
rain this weekend will be over the San Juans, but chances of rain
will increase over all of the higher terrain. Most widespread
coverage will be on Sunday, and it will be several degrees cooler
over the mountain on Sunday as compared to Saturday. There will be a
chance of a few showers pushing east onto the I-25 corridor on
Sunday afternoon.
Early next week, the closed low will fill and de-amplify as it moves
northeast, Nonetheless, some troughieness will move over the plains
and this may allow for a slightly better chance of showers over
parts of the plains on this day. With moisture already in place over
the mtns, scattered showers and tsra are expected. Chances of rain
are expected to decrease over all of the region by midweek, with
temperatures generally remaining in the 80s over the plains and 70s
valleys. /Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR conditions with light diurnal wind regimes remain
expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours, with
increasing high level clouds through the day on Friday,
as upper level ridging builds across the state.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MW

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion