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Fort Carson, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

134
FXUS65 KPUB 220906
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 306 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm today, with primary cold front pushing through during the early evening hours.

- Most precip today will occur along and north of US50 this evening.

- A few strong/marginally svr storms over far eastern plains mainly this evening.

- Accumulating snow is expected at mtn tops tonight, mainly north of US50.

- Cooler pattern in store for Tuesday and Wednesday, with meaningful rain and snow chances chances likely across much of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 252 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Today...

Overall, another warm day is anticipated in advance of a potent short wave which is fcst to push into NW CO late today. The plains will remain mainly dry through today, with the exception of EL Paso county likely seeings some storms by late afternoon. The primary front should cross over the Palmer Divide shortly after 6 pm this evening per latest hi res guidance.

For the hi terrain, isold to sctd storms will initiate by early afternoon and progress east through the afternoon hours.

Tonight...

Overall best chance of storms all areas will be along and north of US50, with most of the activity occurring during the evening hours. With instability limited over the I-25 corridor, storms are not expected to become strong to severe, however farther east where somewhat better instability is anticipated (500-1000 J), we may see a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Given the potency of the short wave, Scattered showers and storms will likely last through the night over the region, with a majority of the activity occurring north and along US50. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 252 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Tomorrow..

A secondary cold push across our plains on Tuesday will keep breezy north winds and precipitation chances over much of the area throughout the day tomorrow, along with well below normal temperatures. Daytime highs look to remain firmly in the 60s for all of the I-25 corridor and our mountain valleys, with 50s over the Palmer Divide and low 70s over our far eastern plains. With temperatures this cool, embedded thunderstorm activity will be very minimal, though there will still be slight chances for thunder on Tuesday, mainly over our southern mountains, southern I-25 corridor, and portions of the eastern plains. Precipitation is more likely to fall as steady rainfall over our plains and mountain valleys, with extensive cloud cover remaining over the region throughout the day. Snow will also continue, mainly above 10,000ft. Accumulations of 4 to 6 inches at the most will be possible, mainly for the very top of Pikes Peak, along with the highest peaks of the central mountains.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday.

We begin to clear out slowly from west to east throughout the evening and overnight hours of Tuesday night into Wednesday. The speed of this clearing will determine the extent of cooling for Tuesday night, especially over our mountain valleys. If we clear quickly, frost, and possibly even sub-freezing temperatures, will be possible for the San Luis Valley Tuesday night. Models pull the positively tilted trough axis across our forecast area by the early morning hours of Wednesday, leaving us in northerly flow aloft for the remainder of the day. Daytime highs look to remain around 8 to 10 degrees cooler than normal for Wednesday, though with ridging beginning to build in from the west and skies beginning to clear, we will be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday. Temperatures are likely to top out in the mid to upper 60s over El Paso County and our mountain adjacent plains, with low to mid 70s for the rest of the plains. Showers and thunderstorms will be sparse, but still possible over and near our mountains through the afternoon hours. We`ll see another of round frost possibilities over the San Luis Valley Wednesday night into Thursday morning as well.

Thursday Onwards..

Near normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions look to return for Thursday and Friday as ridging moves back over the region. Models bring a low onshore over California through this period, though they struggle to agree on its path from Thursday onwards. There also seems to be some measure of disagreement on the possibility that we could see some moisture under the ridge and ahead of the low, at least for our mountains, by this weekend, as said low moves inland eventually. Ensemble guidance does suggest that pwats may be above seasonal normals by this weekend, at least for our mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1129 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025

For KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected through the rest of tonight and for much of tomorrow as well. Winds will be light and mainly diurnally driven through the first half of the TAF period, with middle and upper-level cloud cover increasing throughout the daytime hours. A cold front is expected to push across both stations around the 00Z timeframe Monday evening, bringing in gusty north winds and rain/thunderstorm chances through the rest of the evening hours. We`ll see chances for brief reductions to MVFR reductions to ceilings and visibilities with heavier showers throughout that timeframe as well, though confidence in MVFR occurrence was too low to include in either TAF at this time.

FOR KALS..VFR conditions are expected to persist throughout the TAF period. Winds will be mainly light and westerly. Showers will be possible in the vicinity through much of the afternoon and evening hours, generally from 21Z until 04Z. The most likely timeframe for any showers or storms to move on station will be from 23Z until 02Z, though confidence was too low (less than 30%) to include precipitation chances on station at this point.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...EHR

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion

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