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Fort Collins, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

736
FXUS65 KBOU 201115
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 515 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal temperatures for the weekend, with a chance of diurnal showers/storms mainly over the mountains.

- Cold front Monday with a good chance of showers late Monday, remaining cool with scattered showers Tuesday. High mountain snow likely Monday night into Tuesday.

- Turning warmer and drier again late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/... Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025

High clouds continue to spread across the area this afternoon. Mid level moisture will increase by Saturday, but low levels will remain dry. There should be enough instability for scattered showers/storms over the mountains, but the cloud cover will be a limiting factor. It`s possible a few showers might drift off the mountains late in the day. Sunday looks similar, there may be some decrease in moisture from the west in the afternoon but that could actually promote more shower activity with some sunshine.

The models continue to trend further southwest with the Monday/Tuesday shortwave, though there`s quite a range in solutions from northeast of us to southwest of us. In any event, it looks likely that the cold pool aloft with this system will pass over our area and bring some instability. A direct shot could produce a period of rainfall late Monday followed by more mundane showery weather Tuesday. If the system passes on either side of us this could just be one clump of showers, and then some low grade showers over the next day or two but in a somewhat stable air mass. The NBM continues to trend upward with PoPs focused on Monday afternoon and evening, and is bringing the impacts west of the Front Range. It`s cold enough for snow above timberline, and possible down to 9 or 10 thousand feet depending on where the coldest air aloft goes. There`s still some discrepancy on plains temperatures, but there are more runs keeping us in the 60s on Tuesday now. We should get at least a 10 degree drop. It`s likely too cloudy/windy for any frost threat Tuesday morning, but a few coldest spots on the plains could have frost Wednesday. Most areas will likely stay in the 40s.

After that system departs, we`ll be on the east side of a strong ridge. Northerly flow aloft may slow our warming trend, but we will likely be back close to seasonal normals by Thursday or Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday/... Issued at 510 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Winds have become light SW at DIA but light variable at APA and BJC. Winds will become more NNE by 18z and then turn more easterly by 21Z. Still can`t rule out a chc of high based showers and possibly an isold tstm by 22z. However, have kept in a prob30 for -shra for now. Winds will gradually become more southerly by 03z and then may trend more SW by 06z. There will be abundant mid and high clouds moving across but ceilings should be mainly above 12000 ft. If showers develop could see brief ceilings down to 9000 ft thru 03z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gimmestad AVIATION...RPK

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion

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