Fort Screven, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

327
FXUS62 KCHS 061727
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
127 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the region today. A cold front
is expected to move through late Sunday. The front should stall
offshore through the middle of next week, while high pressure
prevails to the north.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Visible satellite and KCLX Doppler Radar indicated a weak sea breeze
sliding inland this afternoon. The KCHS sounding observed this
morning indicated a strong inversion centered at H6, with rather dry
conditions below the inversion. This profile should yield only weak
instability during afternoon temps in the low to mid 90s, with thin
CIN. Scattered cumulus may remain along and ahead of the sea breeze,
however, deep convection appears unlikely.
A cold front will continue to approach the forecast area from the
west through much of tonight. During the evening, a cluster or two
of showers and thunderstorms may track east of the Fall Line of GA
and SC ahead of the cold front. This activity is expected to
dissipate before reaching the forecast area. Near term guidance
times the front push over the forecast area during the pre-dawn
hours Sunday morning. As the front approaches, mid and high clouds
should gradually increase from the west through the overnight hours.
Light winds, narrow dewpoint depressions, and late arrival of cloud
cover may yield some patchy fog across extreme SE GA before
daybreak. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the low 70s
inland to the mid 70s along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday: The mid-levels will consist of a trough stretching from the
Great Lakes region into the Deep South in the morning. It`ll slowly
lift northeast as time progresses. At the surface, a cold front will
be located to our northwest in the morning. There are some
differences between the models regarding how quickly it moves
through our area. But the consensus seems to have it pushing
southeast through our area in the afternoon or evening, then well
offshore overnight. There is a decent plume of moisture ahead of the
front, with PWATs peaking ~1.75" late. High temperatures should peak
in the upper 80s to lower 90s, except cooler at the beaches. Even
with this heat and moisture, models don`t have much instability in
place. So even though thunderstorms are in the forecast, the risk of
strong to severe storms is very low. Though, locally heavy rainfall
is possible in a few spots. Otherwise, the NBM has chance POPs in
the afternoon and early evening, with drier conditions inland behind
the front. Slight chance to chance POPs could persist along the
immediate coast late at night. Lows should range from the mid 60s
far inland to the lower 70s near the beaches.
Monday and Tuesday: Weak mid-level troughing should prevail over the
Southeast U.S. Though, it could strengthen on Tuesday in response to
an approaching ridge from the Central Plains. At the surface, a cold
front will be moving offshore Monday morning, then transition to a
stationary front to our south and southeast through Tuesday.
Meanwhile, High pressure should stay centered over New England both
days. The periphery of the High should stretch all the way down into
the Southeast U.S. This synoptic setup should yield a tight gradient
between dry conditions and rainfall. The NBM has the lowest POPs and
QPF far inland, with the highest POPs and QPF along the immediate
coast. Even higher POPs are further offshore. Though, it`s possible
the NBM is too high with both the POPs and the QPF. High
temperatures will be below normal due to the persistent clouds and
gusty northeast winds, especially along the immediate coast. Highs
should range from the low/mid 70s across our SC counties, to the
low/mid 80s across our GA counties.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The surface pattern should feature a wedge of High pressure to our
north and inland with a stationary front well to our south and
southeast. The NBM keeps slight chance to chance POPs closer to the
coast each day. Temperatures should remain a few degrees below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Prior to the 18Z TAFs, visible satellite and KCLX Doppler Radar
indicated a weak sea breeze roughly along a line from KSVN to KLRO,
sliding inland. The sea breeze should reach KCHS and KSAV around the
onset of the 18Z TAFs, shifting winds from the south between 5 to 10
kts. By early this evening, winds should generally decouple, with
light to calm winds overnight. Some ground fog is possible during
the pre-dawn hours, greatest coverage expected near KSAV. Near term
guidance times the front push over the forecast area during the pre-
dawn hours Sunday morning. As the front approaches, mid and high
clouds should gradually increase from the west through the overnight
hours. Sunday afternoon may yield a period of TSRA at each terminal,
but TSRA may develop just after the 18Z TAF period.
Extended Aviation Forecast: A cold front could bring some flight
restrictions due to showers Sunday afternoon. Additional flight
restrictions are possible from showers each afternoon through
Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet conditions will continue today as a front approaches from
the west. Light northeasterly winds this morning will turn south-
southeasterly into the afternoon hours, with seas remaining
between 2-3 ft.
Extended Marine: A cold front will approach from the northwest on
Sunday, then move across the waters by Sunday night. The front
should stall offshore through the middle of next week, while High
pressure prevails to our north. This synoptic setup will cause
northeast winds to surge behind the front and stay elevated through
the middle of next week. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for
all of our ocean waters during this time period for winds and seas,
and perhaps for the Charleston Harbor due to winds. Conditions
should start to improve on Wednesday, with winds and seas trending
lower.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide levels will continue to increase through the
weekend, getting as high as 6.4 ft MLLW by the Sunday evening
high tide cycle within the Charleston Harbor. However, winds
will not be particularly favorable for large tidal departures
during this time period but observed peak tides could still top
out around 7 ft MLLW at Charleston each evening through Sunday.
Astronomical tide levels will remain high through the middle of
next week, given a full moon (9/7) and lunar perigee (9/10). A
notable surge of northeast flow along the coast is expected to
produce increased tidal departures through at least the middle
of next week which will result in an increasing probability of
minor to moderate coastal flooding along portions of the SC
coast. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the lower SC and
GA coast beginning Monday evening.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...

NWS chs Office Area Forecast Discussion