Four Oaks, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

419
FXUS62 KRAH 301828
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
228 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid and upper-level low will move across the Carolinas
through Wednesday, while surface high pressure will otherwise extend
across the region. Stronger, Canadian high pressure will build
across the eastern US mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...
Hurricane Imelda currently located a few hundred miles east of the
northern FL coast will continue to track ENE out to sea through
tonight. Tropical moisture streaming up from the system along with
weak upper impulses are still resulting in some patchy very light
rain across portions of central NC, but it is diminishing in
coverage and intensity, a trend that will continue through the rest
of the afternoon. The environment is also very stable with no CAPE
to speak of as NE flow, overcast skies and light rain lock in cool
temperatures near the surface. High temperatures this afternoon will
only reach the lower-to-mid-70s which is around 2-6 degrees below
normal. Additional rainfall amounts will only be a trace if that in
most places, but isolated amounts of up to a few hundredths of an
inch are possible, mainly over the Sandhills and central/southern
Coastal Plain. So have slight chance POPs that gradually shift to
eastern parts of the region and end by 00z. NE winds will also
continue to gust to 15-25 mph at times through late afternoon.
Low clouds will continue to get eroded through this evening as the
mean flow switches from southeasterly to northeasterly and drier air
filters in from surface high pressure drifting east from eastern
Ontario to western Quebec. Dew points will drop from the 60s where
they are now to the mid-to-upper-50s overnight. However, mostly
cloudy to overcast skies from mid and high clouds will remain
overnight. This will keep low temperatures on the mild side, in the
lower-to-mid-60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...
Drier air and below-normal PW values will continue to advect into
central NC on Wednesday from NE flow as surface ridging from a high
centered over Quebec builds south into New England and the Mid-
Atlantic. Furthermore, mid/upper troughing will shift east into the
Atlantic as the amplified ridge axis moves from the MS Valley into
the TN and OH Valleys, resulting in height rises over central NC.
This will bring an end to the deck of mid and high clouds from west
to east on Wednesday morning, with mostly sunny skies in most areas
by the afternoon. The surface pressure gradient will stay relatively
tight between Hurricanes Imelda and Humberto to our east and the
Canadian high, so NE gusts in the 15-25 mph range will again be
possible. The increased sunshine will bring one day of near-normal
temperatures with highs in the mid-70s to 80 (coolest NE, warmest
SW). Dew points will be more comfortable, mainly in the 50s,
dropping into the upper-40s on Wednesday night as elevated N/NE
surface flow continues. This will help low temperatures drop into
the upper-40s to lower-50s, giving us perhaps the coolest conditions
of the season so far.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 144 PM Tuesday...
Mid-level ridging will amplify across eastern Canada Wednesday and
Thursday, briefly de-amplify over the northeast Friday, and then re-
amplify across the northeast this weekend into early next week.
At the sfc, strong high pressure over Canada will extend cool, dry
nely flow across central NC Thursday through Friday. Highs will
generally range in the lower to mid 70s, although some upper 60s
will be possible as highs on Thursday.  Overnight lows should dip
into the lower 50s with some possible upper 40s Thursday night
across northern locations. Lingering nely gusts of 15 to 20 mph are
possible Thursday. However, the center of the high will slide off
the Mid-Atlantic coast by Friday which should relax the winds and
lead to a bit of a warm up this weekend as flow turns a bit more ely
(highs in the upper 70s by Sunday).
The weekend period should remain dry. However, as low-level flow
turns more esely by early next week, we should see a return of
higher moisture across much of our area. While details wrt to sfc or
upper forcing are hard to tease out this far out, it does appear
that guidance at least generally holds some sort of coastal
front/trough near us early next week.  We`ll have to see how things
unfold the next several days, but for now just maintained low-end
slight chance POPs for showers Monday and Tuesday.  Highs will
generally maintain in the upper 70s to lower to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...
Nely winds and associated surface gusts, related to a MSL pressure
gradient between high pressure centered over the lwr Great Lakes and
a pair of tropical cyclones over the western Atlantic, will be the
primary aviation concern through the 18Z TAF period. Those winds and
gusts will generally subside around sunset and redevelop shortly
after sunrise Wed. Winds just above the surface will also remain
stronger than average and favor near, but (probably) sub-criteria
low-level wind shear conditions overnight. Otherwise, mid-level
ceilings, and occasional light/VFR rain and virga, will linger with
the slow passage of a mid/upr-level low through Wed.
Outlook: Stratocumulus based around 3000 ft AGL may become briefly
broken in coverage over ern NC, near and especially east of RWI, Thu-
Fri.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...MWS

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion