Fourth Lake Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

220
FXUS61 KCAR 140304
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1104 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly exits to the east through Tuesday while a
coastal low tracks well to the south from the Mid-Atlantic
coast. A cold front crosses Maine Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning, followed by high pressure building in from the west
through Friday night. A warm front lifts to the north on
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
High pressure will remain ridged across northern Maine
overnight, while low pressure remains offshore from the
Mid-Atlantic coast. Isolated/scattered showers on the northern
edge of the precipitation shield from the Mid-Atlantic low will
clip Downeast areas through early morning. Otherwise, expect
partly/mostly cloudy skies north with mostly cloudy/cloudy
skies Downeast. Overnight low temperatures will range from
around 30 to the lower 30s north, to the lower to mid 40s
Downeast. Have updated to adjust for current conditions along
with expected overnight temperatures, clouds and shower
chances.
Previous Discussion...
Gusty winds, high seas, and the potential for dangerous
nearshore surf continue along the coast through Tuesday. Rip
currents and sneaker waves will lead to dangerous beach
conditions. Waves crashing against rocks can splash violently
upward and wash onlookers out to sea. Some minor beach erosion
is possible. Our messaging is if you plan to be along the
shoreline, keep your distance from the water, and never turn
your back on the ocean. Winds and seas should be on a downward
trend beginning this evening as the Noreaster begins to move
east offshore. However, seas will be much slower than winds to
decrease. As the Noreaster begins to exit the region on Tuesday,
a weak shortwave pushes through the area along with a weak cold
front. Precipitation chances are fairly low across the region
due to the modest forcing as well as ample low-level dry air
exhibited by model soundings. Winds will become breezy Tuesday
night behind the front which should keep temperatures on the
warmer side and also prevent fog development.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A developing northern stream closed low crosses Maine Wednesday,
then stalls over New Brunswick Wednesday night and Thursday. The
result will be isolated to scattered showers, mainly across Eastern
Maine. On Wednesday night, it could be could enough for the showers
to mix with or change to all snow across portions of the Northwoods.
At this time no accumulation is expected, except for possibly at the
top of Katahdin.
Highs on Wednesday should be a few degrees below normal, with lows
Wednesday night near normal. Highs on Thursday should be around 5
degrees below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The closed upper low slides offshore Thursday night, then slowly
exits to the southeast through Friday. A few isolated showers near
the eastern boarder with Canada cannot be ruled out.
Deep layered ridging builds in Friday night through Saturday night.
It should be dry, though there is a small number of ensemble members
who exit the ridge axis to the east by late Saturday night allowing
for a slight chance of showers late Saturday night over far W zones.
The region is under SW flow aloft Sunday and Sunday night, with a
gradually increasing chance of showers from W to E.
A northern stream closed low approaches Monday - and depending on
how fast it moves in - will determine the coverage and intensity of
showers during the day. For now going with low end likely pops,
though still not completely convinced the timing on this system will
not change.
Temperatures should be near to slightly below normal Thursday night-
Saturday, then above normal Saturday night-Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Overnight...Variable conditions with any local patchy fog.
Otherwise, VFR. Isolated/scattered showers possible Downeast
through early morning. Light and variable winds north,
east/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots Downeast.
Tuesday...VFR. Isolated showers possible. Light and variable
winds north, East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming
variable Downeast.
Tuesday night...VFR. Light and variable winds increase to
5-10 kts out of the NW.
SHORT TERM:
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 8
PM Tuesday for the intra-coastal waters and through 8 AM
Wednesday for the remainder of the waters. NE winds 15-20 kts
with gusts up to 25 kts will gradually decrease tonight,
becoming 5 to 10 kts by Tuesday evening. Seas 8 to 11 ft with a
period of 10-12 seconds will decrease much slower than the winds
and stay above small craft advisory criteria through Tuesday
night. Isolated/scattered showers overnight.
SHORT TERM:
Wednesday-Thursday night...MVFR possible, with the best chance
at terminals near the eastern boarder with Canada, otherwise
VFR. NW winds G15-30KT possible Wednesday through Thursday.
Friday-Saturday...VFR. NW winds G15-20KT possible Friday
afternoon.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...CN/SM
Short Term...PM
Long Term...PM
Aviation...CN/SM/PM
Marine...CN/SM/PM

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion