Fox Chase Manor, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

843
FXUS61 KPHI 101043
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
643 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered from New England to Nova Scotia Canada
will continue to shift eastward today. An area low pressure off
the coast of the Carolinas tracks north and northeastward
through today, then moves even farther away from our area during
Thursday. A cold front arrives Sunday night into Monday, then
high pressure builds to our north Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Through the morning hours Wednesday, PoPs are 15-20% for areas
west of I-95. For the I-95 corridor, it is 25-30% and then as
you head east it increases up to 40%. The coastal areas of
southern NJ and Sussex County, Delaware will at times see PoPs
up to 40-60%. This all aligns well with the coastal low
continuing to bring in moisture and set off showers that will be
isolated to scattered in coverage. There are some indications
that local enhancements from areas of convergence and elevation
may lead to an increase in precipitation at times across parts
of our area. An isolated thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out
(15% chance), most likely in the coastal areas.
Our winds will stay breezy through this afternoon with sustained
winds generally around 10 mph and gusts up to 20 mph for most. Along
the coast, sustained winds around 15 mph are expected with gusts up
to 20-30 mph. Otherwise, mainly overcast conditions are expected
with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Heading into this afternoon and especially the evening, conditions
will trend drier and winds will begin to relax as the low pulls
further away from the coast to the east-northeast. Skies will
gradually begin to clear tonight, with winds becoming light,
especially away from the coast. Lows mainly in the 50s (near 60 in
the Philly metro and along the coast) are expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-level trough axis is forecast to be arriving during this
time frame. While there are shortwaves moving about this trough,
surface high pressure centered to our north is forecast to extend
down through the Mid-Atlantic region. This will provide a much
lighter low-level flow and also take low pressure already well
offshore even farther away from our area. Cloud cover should linger
to start Thursday mainly along the coast, then with a more initial
northerly flow and some drier air an increase in sunshine is
expected across the area. A much warmer day also expected, although
a sea/bay breeze looks to develop resulting a north wind becoming
east or southeast. High temperatures around 80 degrees are expected
for much of the area, with temperatures then dropping mostly into
the 50s Thursday night.
As we go through Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to be
moving across eastern Canada as it becomes a closed low near and
then south and east of Hudson Bay. A separate upper-level trough is
forecast to be crossing the East, however it may gradually weaken
with time. Surface high pressure well to our northeast extends
southwestward across our area, and other than some mostly diurnally
driven cumulus, dry conditions are anticipated. High temperatures
are forecast to be in the upper 70s to low 80s, although cooler
along the coast and in the higher elevations.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summary...Temperatures around average.
Synoptic Overview...An upper-level trough across much of eastern
Canada is forecast to amplify across the Northeast and the Mid-
Atlantic Saturday into Sunday. Some guidance has had this becoming a
closed low in the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic Monday, which then
meanders through Tuesday, however some of the same guidance has
joined others and showing this feature more progressive now. At the
surface, high pressure extending across our area from the northeast
weakens Saturday. A cold front then crosses our area late Sunday
into Monday as low pressure tracks by well offshore. High pressure
builds to our north through Tuesday.
For Saturday...An upper-level trough across eastern Canada is
forecast to amplify into the Northeast. A separate upper-level
trough exiting the Southeast U.S. may also feature a small closed
low. This incoming upper-level trough may have little impact on our
sensible weather as a narrow but weak corridor of high pressure
extends across our region from the northeast. The low-level flow
looks to be on the weak side and therefore a sea/bay breeze looks to
develop through the day and into the early evening. Daytime
temperatures should be right around average, although it will be
cooler along the coast with a wind off the ocean. There should be
some diurnally driven cumulus development as well especially inland
from the coast.
For Sunday through Tuesday...The evolution of the Canadian upper-
level trough will determine our sensible weather. Some guidance
shows an expansive closed low that becomes centered in the vicinity
of the Mid-Atlantic, while some others are farther north and more
progressive. As the arrival of the sharpening trough arrives, a cold
front looks to cross our area late Sunday into Monday. While this
occurs, low pressure off the Southeast U.S. coast is forecast to
track northeastward and remain well offshore of our coast. Shower
chances look challenging given uncertainty in the upper air pattern
that evolves across the East during this time frame. Given the
uncertainty, especially at this time range and also factoring in the
model differences, did not deviate from the NBM output. Temperatures
at this time look to be near average.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Today...Sub-VFR ceilings for all terminals. MVFR ceilings at
KABE/KRDG and I-95 terminals. IFR Ceilings at KACY/KMIV with
LIFR at times. Ceilings should begin to improve late this
afternoon, after 22Z, but likely (70% chance) remaining sub-VFR
into the evening for all terminals except KABE/KRDG. Northeast
to north winds around 10 knots for most terminal with 10-15
knots and gusts up to 20 knots for KMIV/KACY. Winds diminish
late in the afternoon and through the evening. Moderate
confidence.
Tonight...Lingering sub-VFR conditions diminish. I-95 terminals
should return to VFR by late evening, but MVFR cigs will linger
longer at KMIV/KACY, potentially not clearing until after 08Z.
Northerly winds around 5 knots or less, except at KMIV/KACY
where wind speeds around 5-10 knots are expected. Moderate
confidence.
Outlook...
Thursday through Sunday...VFR with no significant weather.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remain in effect for the Atlantic Ocean zones
into early Thursday morning due to elevated seas of 5-7 feet and
northeast winds gusting up to 25-30 knots. Scattered showers
possible for all marine waters through this evening. Slight
chance (15%) for a thunderstorm, most likely this morning.
Northeast winds turn northerly tonight and begin to decrease but
seas will continue to remain elevated.
Outlook...
Thursday through Sunday...The conditions are anticipated to be below
Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Rip Currents...
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
For today, northeasterly winds 15-25 mph with gusts to around 30 mph
will gradually diminish this afternoon. Breaking waves in the surf
zone are forecast to be 4-6 feet. An easterly swell around 7 seconds
looks to continue with rough surf conditions. As a result, a HIGH
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents continues at all
beaches.
For Thursday, north to east winds around 10 mph. Breaking waves in
the surf zone of 2-4 feet are forecast. An easterly swell around 7
seconds will persist as the rough surf conditions improve. As a
result, there is a MODERATE risk for development of dangerous rip
currents at all beaches especially during the first half of the day.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strong northeasterly flow continues today, before weakening tonight
into Thursday. Despite being three days removed from the Full Moon,
astronomical high tides are still high enough with water pushing
into the coast for minor tidal flooding to occur at most of our
tide gauge sites.
The more widespread minor tidal flooding looks to occur with the
high tide cycle today. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains
in effect for all coastal zones along the ocean, backbays and as
well as the Delaware Bay through this afternoon. Additional minor
tidal flooding may occur with future high tide cycles on Thursday
and into Friday as well.
For the tidal Delaware River, some minor tidal flooding is forecast
with today`s high tide cycles and even on Thursday into Friday.
Much of this may be below minor advisory level and given lower
confidence will continue to hold off on a Coastal Flood Advisory for
now.
No tidal flooding is expected along the northeast coast of
Chesapeake Bay.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NJZ014-024>026.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     DEZ002>004.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...AKL
SHORT TERM...Gorse
LONG TERM...Gorse
AVIATION...AKL/Gorse
MARINE...AKL/DeSilva/Gorse
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO PHI

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion