Fox Creek, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

391
FXUS65 KPUB 190942
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
342 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer today, with thunderstorm chances returning to mainly
  the mountains/valleys south of Highway 60.
- Warmer, near normal temperatures are expected for this
  weekend, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
  over and near the higher terrain, especially on Saturday.
- A pattern change arrives mid-week, ushering in cooler and
  wetter conditions from around Tuesday onwards.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 341 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Today and Tonight...
Upper ridge builds across Colorado today, then flattens slightly
tonight as weak short wave energy pushes eastward through the
Rockies. Already seeing an increase in moisture in IR/Water Vapor
Imagery across wrn Colorado this morning, with some mid-level clouds
beginning to spill into the region. For today, as moisture
increases, isolated to scattered thunderstorms return to the area,
mainly across the mountains/interior valleys south of Highway 50.
Dry low levels will likely limit storm coverage/strength initially,
though some spotty wetting rainfall (amounts great than a tenth of
an inch) may develop by late day over the ern San Juans where upward
motion and moisture are best. This evening, storms fade away through
the evening, with most activity done by midnight. Max temps today
will climb several degf warmer than yesterday at most locations,
with some mid 80s on the plains.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Saturday and Sunday..
We remain in the northern periphery of a flat upper ridge through
the weekend, allowing for temperatures to warm back up to near and
above normal seasonal levels. We`ll also see enough mid and upper-
level moisture, along with short wave energy, to keep continued
chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over
the high country. Models point towards higher chances for showers
and storms on Saturday, some of which could sneak out onto the
plains, though chances for storms becoming severe are low for now.
Daytime highs on Saturday look to be near normal, with temperatures
climbing into the 70s for our mountain valleys, the Raton Mesa, and
the Palmer Divide, with low to mid 80s expected elsewhere on the
plains. Models point towards lesser thunderstorm chances and
increasing temperatures for Sunday, with highs climbing into mid and
upper-80s over the Arkansas River Valley. We`ll be dry in the lower
levels both days, bringing in higher chances for gusty winds, and
lower chances for wetting rains.
Monday and Tuesday..
Models are still showing quite a bit of disagreement about the
incoming low that looks to be arriving around the Tuesday timeframe.
Its exact timing, track, and the amplitude of the trough in general
are still wildly different amongst deterministic output. For now,
ensemble guidance still suggests that the influence of the low
should hold off until late Monday or Tuesday, giving way to another
day of near to just above normal temperatures for our Monday
afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Monday as well, mainly over and near the higher terrain. Models
suggest that the cold front will likely arrive late Monday, ushering
in some much cooler temperatures for our Tuesday and Wednesday. The
NBM continues to slowly trend towards cooler guidance, though this
forecaster still dropped temperatures a few degrees from NBM output
on Tuesday given that other guidance has been consistently cooler.
Models continue to struggle with the track of this low, with the EC
keeping the wave open and pulling the trough axis right over
Colorado on Tuesday afternoon, the GFS closing off a low and keeping
it just to our north by Tuesday evening, and the Canadian pulling
the low all the way back to our west and into the four corners
region by Wednesday morning. Of course, this timing and track will
ultimately decide our forecast through the middle of the week, but
it seems that a pattern change towards below normal temperatures and
continued chances for precipitation will be in store eventually, no
matter the solution.
Wednesday Onwards..
Models suggest another low coming in from our southwest right on the
tail of the Tuesday system. Of course, there is even less agreement
on this system than its predecessor, but most solutions suggest it
will eventually pass over our region and eject to our southeast,
leaving us in a ridging pattern by next weekend. If this plays out,
we`ll likely see near to just below temperatures for the Thursday
and Friday timeframe, with a warmup through the weekend. Continued
chances for showers and thunderstorms over and near the higher
terrain also seem to be possible through much of the rest of the
extended period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
At KCOS and KPUB, VFR conditions with typical diurnal wind cycle
under 15 kts. At KALS, VFR, but enough of a risk of convection to
carry a prob30 group for tsra from 21z-24z. Gusty winds over 30 kts
the main storm hazard, as low level moisture remains limited.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...PETERSEN

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion