626 FXUS63 KLOT 071736 AFDLOTArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1236 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably cool conditions through Monday morning.
- Low chances (20%-30%) for showers midweek.
- Warming trend to average or above temperatures mid-late week.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Through Monday:
The main longwave trough and associated embedded shortwave troughs that have been a persistent feature over the western Great Lakes over the past few days will shift east today. A strengthening surface high ahead of modest mid-level height rises will track from Iowa early this morning to the eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. This will promote a generally tranquil period of weather with shallow diurnal cumulus during the day and clear skies overnight. High temperatures up to around 70 today will moderate closer to seasonal normals on Monday with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Expect another chilly night tonight with mostly calm winds and lows in the lower 40s inland to around 50 in Chicago. However, with a rather dry airmass still in place today, typically colder spots may experience temps into the upper 30s.
Kluber
Monday Night through Saturday:
General trend into mid-week and beyond is for generally dry and warmer weather conditions, though there is increasing guidance spread toward and beyond the end of this forecast cycle next weekend.
An expansive area of surface high pressure is forecast to be departing the area to the east by Monday evening, though weaker surface ridging lingers across the lower Ohio Valley through mid-week. Aloft, ensemble guidance remains in generally good agreement in tracking a pair of mid-level short waves through region and loosely phasing them across the area Tuesday into Wednesday (one tracking east from IA, another digging southeast across the upper Midwest). In the process, low-level flow turns more southerly across the region and increases warm/moist advection especially along an axis from the Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley and northern Great Lakes. Locally, this should result in temperatures warming into the mid-upper 70s on Tuesday and into the low-mid 80s Wednesday (away from Lake Michigan).
With the primary warm/moist advection axis west and northwest of the forecast area, precipitation chances continue to appear relatively low for our cwa. Latest ensemble runs continue to only brush far northwest/northern IL with generally low (
NWS LOT Office Area Forecast Discussion