Franklinton, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

730
FXUS62 KRAH 240800
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
400 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from Bermuda to the South Atlantic coast
ahead of a couple of slow-moving cold fronts that will merge while
moving east across the Carolinas Thursday through Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...
* Unseasonably hot, with a chance of showers and storms over the nw
  Piedmont this afternoon through tonight.
Shortwave ridging and height rises will progress across and offshore
the South Atlantic coast today. It will do so downstream of a
positively-tilted synoptic trough, stretching through a series of
shortwave perturbations well-defined in GOES-E WV data from the
Great Lakes to the Four Corners, that will pivot and progress slowly
ewd and across the lwr and Mid MS Valleys and srn Great Plains
through tonight - still well to the west of cntl NC. The synoptic
trough will be preceded by convectively-perturbed swly flow now
stretching from the OH Valley to the srn Plains, which will likewise
progress ewd and reach the Carolinas with associated 10-30 meter 500
mb height falls by tonight.
At the surface, NWP guidance suggest a 1012 mb frontal wave now near
the ArkLAtex will deepen a few millibars while migrating slowly newd
and across the OH Valley today and to the ern OH/wrn PA vicinity by
tonight. A trailing synoptic cold front will likely reach the mid-
South and lwr MS Valley by 12Z Thu - well west of cntl NC like the
parent positively-tilted trough. However, a composite outflow
boundary from upstream convection now stretching across srn AR, nrn
MS, and Middle TN separate will likely provide a continued focus for
frontogenesis ahead of the synoptic front, from the lwr MS and TN
Valleys newd and into the vicinity of a preceding lee trough axis
across the Foothills and wrn Piedmont of the Carolinas and VA. That
convectively-reinforced frontal zone will probably be draped near or
just west of the nw NC Piedmont by tonight.
Given that most of cntl NC will remain in the warm sector east of
both frontal zones, except the nw Piedmont by late this afternoon-
tonight, unseasonably hot conditions will result over cntl NC. In
fact, high temperatures on Tue exceeded forecast values; and the
airmass today should be a hotter one than Tue over cntl NC,
according to forecast 925-850 mb temperatures and 1000-850 mb
thickness values. High temperatures should consequently range from
upr 80s across the nrn Piedmont to lwr to mid 90s elsewhere. It
should also be mostly dry over all but the nw Piedmont, where PoPs
will increase into the 20-30% range by late this afternoon-tonight.
Humidity levels will also be on the increase, as onshore flow across
the South Atlantic coast should yield an increase in surface
dewpoints into the upr 60s-lwr 70s by Thu morning, with similar-
valued low temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Wednesday...
* Hot and humid conditions expected with mid/upper 90s heat indices
  possible for the Sandhills, Coastal Plain and portions of the
  eastern Piedmont.
* Low predictability risk for strong to severe thunderstorms capable
  of strong straight-line winds and heavy downpours Thurs afternoon
  into the early evening.
A positively-tilted trough axis stretching from the Great Lakes into
TX will be in place Thurs morning and will slowly translate eastward
into early Fri morning. Deep-layer moisture within the enhanced
southwesterly flow will gradually overspread the area when PWAT
values will be approaching 2" (at-or-above the 90th percentile).
Upper 60s to around 70s dew points will be in place across most of
the area Thurs morning and may support 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by
early afternoon, highest in the western NC Piedmont into south-
central VA. The kinematic profile and synoptic ingredients will be
in place for both a severe and flooding risk, but it will greatly
depend on if an unstable environment can develop as mid/high level
cloudiness from upstream convection may inhibit optimal diurnal
heating.
If an unstable environment does indeed take shape, the primary
threat would be for strong to severe wind gusts in the form of
bowing thunderstorm clusters with perhaps some transient supercell
characteristics farther north into VA where greater shear is
expected. As for flooding concerns, anomalous moisture > 90th
percentile, slow moving effective front, and deep warm cloud layer >
10k feet, synoptically supports a risk for efficient heavy rain
producing storms; although limited instability and poor mid-level
lapse rates may prevent torrential rain rates. Hi-res guidance and
24-hr QPF fields suggest storm modeled storm motions will be quick
enough to not cause much concerns until perhaps after 23z when the
low-level jet strengths and ground-relative storm motion slows.
Storms will have to sustain deep convection after sunset, which most
model guidance does not. Forecast remains highly conditional and
confidence remains low at this time. Supporting a continuation of a
marginal risk for severe and flooding from SPC and WPC respectively.
Continued warm/moist advection through the low-levels will support
temperatures rising into the upper 80s to mid-90s Thurs afternoon
with a humid airmass in place. This should result in heat indices in
the mid 90s and approaching 100 from the Triangle into the Sandhills
and southern/central Coastal Plain.
&&.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 AM Wednesday...
* Prolonged cloudy conditions and periods of rain likely Friday
  through Saturday night, which may linger into early next week.
* Although tropical development is becoming likely for AL94, timing,
  track, and intensity all have a high degree of uncertainty.
Confidence continues to increase on a prolonged period of cloudy
conditions with periods of rain through early next week. The
positively-tilted trough axis to our west will separate with the
base of the trough transitioning to a cutoff low over the TN Valley
and Southeast. This will keep a steady streamer of moist southerly
perturbed flow into and over the area through the weekend. The
presence of 500-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, maximized during the
afternoon/evening, will support periods of moderate to heavy rain
Fri into Sat and potentially even into Sun and Mon, but forecast
confidence drastically deteriorates Sun onward.
The placement of the cutoff low this weekend into early next week
will additionally play a key role on where AL94 tracks. Although
forecast confidence from NHC is increasing on the development of
tropical characteristics, the track remains highly uncertain due to
low predictability of the cutoff low. The general consensus from the
global models is a track relatively along/near the Bahamas, but when
it turns north and northeast is where the greatest uncertainty
exists. Now is a good time to stay weather aware and check back
regularly for updates on the latest trends in the forecast. For now,
the threat for impacts in the Carolinas is low.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 AM Wednesday...
A 40-50 mile wide band of LIFR ceilings and LIFR to MVFR visibility
restrictions in mist/fog over the ern Carolinas will probably
continue to develop nwd and widen into the FAY and RWI vicinity
between 07-09Z, before dispersing by 13-14Z. Scattered showers and
storms, the remnants of more vigorous upstream convection, may at
least skirt the nw Piedmont and INT/GSO vicinity this afternoon
through early tonight.
Outlook: Areas of stratus and fog will be possible again Thu
morning, mainly at and east of RWI and FAY. Probability of
showers/storms occurrence will increase and overspread all of cntl
NC by Thu night-Fri, with associated flight restrictions, then
linger into the upcoming weekend, as a slow-moving trough aloft and
surface cold front slowly traverse our region.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...Swiggett
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...MWS

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion