Freetown, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

398
FXUS63 KLMK 220728
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
328 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
*  Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening.
   Main impacts are gusty winds, hail, and brief heavy rainfall.
*  Active and unsettled weather patter sets up over the area for
   next week with daily chances for showers and storms.
*  Multi day rainfall amounts from today to Friday afternoon will
   range between 3 to 4 inches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A 25-30kt LLJ is developed over the lower Ohio Valley and is helping
to promote a cluster of showers and embedded storms over western
Kentucky and a few isolated storms along the TN border. This cluster
of showers/storms will continue to push NE through the morning
hours.
The main trough axis will swing through the region during the day
today. This feature will bring better forcing to an already moist
and uninhibited environment. Looking to see multiple rounds of
scattered showers and storms today. Modest CAPE around 1500 J/kg, 20-
25kts of deep-layer shear, and modest low-level lapse rates will
allow for some storms to become strong. Main hazards being gusty
winds, heavy rainfall, and lightning. High-Res guidance is still not
handing convection well, so exact timing and coverage is low
confidence.
Otherwise, winds will pick up out of the SW around 8-12mph and
gusting up to 20mph outside of storms. Temperatures will likely be
in the low-to-mid 80s, though convection placement and timing will
have a large impact on temperatures today.
In the overnight hours, the trough axis will continue to swing
through the region. A 25-30kt LLJ will once again develop over the
lower Ohio Valley. These features and elevated instability will help
to keep rounds of showers and storms overnight. We should see
tapering chances towards sunrise.
Given how dry it has been over the last several weeks, we most
definitely welcome the rain. Although HREF LPMMs show a few swaths
of 2-3 inches and some bullseyes of 3-4 inches through the Tuesday
morning. Therefore, a will keep an eye on any flooding
concerns today.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Tuesday - Tuesday Night...
The shortwave trough will exit to the east by Tuesday morning and
flow aloft will become more zonal. Broader troughing will remain
over the northeastern CONUS and extend through the upper Midwest and
into the high Plains, where a closed upper low will attempt to
develop. We will likely see a break in precip over most of the
region from Tuesday morning through much of the day. Though a
lingering weak LLJ over the southeastern portion of the region and a
continued stream of vorticity may help to bring some showers and
storms along the TN border. With ample instability and weak shear,
we could some stronger storms capable of gusty winds, heavy
rainfall, and lightning. Best timing is Tuesday afternoon through
the evening.
Tuesday night, we could see continued showers and storms given a
developing LLJ, continued vorticity stream, and elevated instability.
Wednesday - End of the Week...
The closed low over the High Plains will begin to travel east and
interact with broader troughing over the northeastern CONUS. This
will bring cyclogenesis over the mid-Mississippi Valley. The low
will track over the Ohio Valley bringing a cold front through the
region later in the week. During this time, showers and storms will
remain in the forecast each day until the cold front passes through.
The weekend is trending drier, though some guidance keeps a closed
low over the southeastern CONUS, which may bring showers and storms
back into the forecast by late weekend.
QPF Forecast...
Forecast still shows a widespread 2.5-3.5 inches of rainfall, with
some areas over 4 inches. Due to the convective nature of this QPF
forecast, locally higher and lower amounts are possible. HREF LPMMs
show a few bullseyes of higher values for today. Backbuilding
convection is possible on Tuesday. Could see some flooding concerns
these days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A weak LLJ is developing over the region and has kept showers and
storms over western Kentucky this morning. These showers and storms
are expected to slowly move NE into central Kentucky and southern
Indiana. Have some TEMPO groups in for terminals west of I-65
through sunrise. Once rain begins, we will see multiple rounds of
showers and storms through the region, lasting most of the day and
into the overnight. Have highlighted with tempo and prob30 groups
the best timing for TSRA right now. In the mid-morning, guidance
shows lower CIGs to MVFR conditions, have included this as well. In
the overnight, showers and storms are expected to continue,
especially over the northern terminals.
Some storms may become strong and gusty winds and small hail will be
possible.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW

NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion