Fulton, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

214
FXUS63 KSGF 111853
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
153 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions into next week.
  Some record highs may be approached. Drought conditions
  worsening.
- Possibly some rain chances by late next week in the 8 to 14
  day outlook.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Upper level low remains stationed over CA/OR/NV borders with
ridge axis expanding over the plains into our western CWA. A
shortwave axis was shifting southeast across the OH valley. Not
much in the way of cloud cover over the area, with some cumulus
over the eastern CWA. Temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s
early this afternoon with humidity levels in the mid 30s to low
40s.
Hot and dry conditions are expected on Friday as the ridge axis
continues to build into the area. We should reach the low to mid
90s across the area. With the drier air in the area, heat index
values don`t get out of hand and generally remain below 100.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Upper ridge axis will continue over the area into the early part
of next week. The trough out west will gradually shift eastward
into the plains late in the weekend and lifting northeast over
the central and northern plains on Sunday night. PW values and
instability from the ensemble data generally remain below ideal
pulse thunderstorm ranges and we are keeping things dry through
the weekend. Will need to watch the far northwest CWA as the
shortwave lifts northeast Sunday night for any potential storms
on the eastern edge of this shortwave. Ridge may flatten out
somewhat in the Monday-Wednesday time frame, however the more
favorable moisture looks to be to our east. For now will leave
pops below 15%. Heading into the 8 to 14 day outlook, another
shortwave may bring better chances of precipitation to the area
by the end of next week.
With the upper ridge in place for much of the 7 day outlook,
temperatures are expected to be on the hot side for this time of
year, with many high temperatures within 5 degrees of
records(listed in the climate section below).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
For the 18z TAFS, as upper level high pressure builds northeast
into the area, we are expecting VFR conditions through the
period and a light surface wind at the TAF sites.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within
5 degrees of a record.
Record High Temperatures:
September 11:
KSGF: 96/2000
KUNO: 96/1953
September 12:
KSGF: 97/1939
KJLN: 97/1956
KVIH: 98/1897
KUNO: 96/1980
September 13:
KSGF: 99/2011
KVIH: 96/1956
KUNO: 96/1980
September 14:
KVIH: 99/1971
KUNO: 99/1954
September 15:
KSGF: 98/1893
KVIH: 97/1897
KUNO: 98/1954
September 16:
KSGF: 95/2019
KVIH: 96/1954
KUNO: 99/1980
September 17:
KSGF: 96/1953
KJLN: 95/1953
KVIH: 97/1953
KUNO: 97/1953
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Lindenberg

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion