995 FXUS64 KJAN 040542 AFDJANArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1242 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly dry weather with warm days and cool nights expected into this weekend.
- Rain chances return early next week with increasing moisture and a disturbance over the region.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Through the weekend: The western periphery of a surface ridge over the Mid Atlantic continues to extend into the area, while more disturbed weather associated with a migratory upper low remains situated over the Gulf. Easterly flow associated with the surface ridge will keep most of our area dry and seasonably warm this weekend. However, the Gulf disturbance and associated moisture will waver northward into southern portions of the area, providing potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms by Sunday mainly south of I-20. Conditions may also be slightly cooler - closer to seasonal normals - across south MS due to greater cloud cover. /DL/
Next work week: Heading into early next week, the center of the upper-level ridge will translate northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic Coast as troughing over the West Coast deepens. The resulting negative PNA pattern over the CONUS will result in southwesterly flow aloft and squeeze to easterly flow at the Gulf Coast. Expect deepening moisture (PWATs near 2.0 inches) and a disturbance lifting into our region to bring rain chances into the new work week. A cold front pushing south into the region by late week will then serve to focus additional shower or thunderstorm chances with more active flow aloft. /NF/
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.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
VFR conditions continue with few to scattered high clouds in the east and a prevailing easterly wind around 8kts./SAS/
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 86 67 83 69 / 0 0 20 20 Meridian 84 66 83 68 / 0 10 20 20 Vicksburg 88 66 85 69 / 0 0 20 10 Hattiesburg 86 68 82 71 / 0 10 40 30 Natchez 88 66 84 69 / 0 0 30 10 Greenville 87 63 87 69 / 0 0 10 10 Greenwood 88 65 88 69 / 0 0 10 20
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.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. &&
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DL/NF/SAS20
NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion