Gackle, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

006
FXUS63 KBIS 101943
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
243 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures continue through the weekend, with
  highs mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the west and
  central Thursday afternoon and evening.
- High chances for rain across the western half of the state
  this weekend, with medium chances for one half to one inch of
  accumulation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Currently a ridge axis is slowly moving east through the state.
At the time of this writing it is located in eastern North
Dakota, with southwest flow entering the state from the west.
The positive vorticity advection across the state is already
apparent when looking at satellite. There are mid and upper
level clouds in western North Dakota. At the surface the low
pressure system sits in southeast Montana, with a stationary
front stretched down through South Dakota. Over the next 24
hours the whole system will slide east, under the southwest flow
aloft. The pressure gradient will tighten, along with the warm
front across the south and east Thursday, leading to another day
of breezy winds.
Starting Thursday afternoon when the diurnal heating and warm
front enter the state, isolated severe storms are possible
through the evening. SPC has a marginal risk across most of
North Dakota, except the southeast. Most models agree that the
MUCAPE will be around 1700 J/kg and the shear around 30kts.
Model soundings also agree that the failure point will be a
slight capping layer where the thermal ridge is sitting, around
850mb. With surface temperatures forecast around 90 in the west
and lift from the warm front and low, it is possible for this
cap to break. The expected hazards if storms get going will be
ping pong sized hail and 60mph winds. The CAMs mostly have
isolated or clusters of storms so hail would seem to be more
likely than wind. The severe threat could continue into the
early part of the night if a strengthening low level jet kicks
in on the east side of the low.
Friday through the weekend that low pressure system and the
southwest flow will continue to produce showers and
thunderstorms daily. High temperatures will remain above
average. Sunday an upper low could form off the Rockies and move
into the Northern Plains. This will continue the chances for
showers and thunderstorms through early next week. The QPF for
the weekend could be over 1 inch, especially in the west. In
central and eastern North Dakota, QPF values look to be less
than 1 inch. Temperatures next week could be below or around
average for this time in September.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR through the period, with breezy southeast winds around 20kts.
There`s a chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday morning.
Confidence is low, only included a PROB30 for three of the
sites. We will get a better idea on coverage as we get closer.
Wind shear is also possible at KBIS between 08 and 14z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion