Gapville Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

729
FXUS63 KJKL 151911
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
311 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry, seasonably pleasant weather continues across eastern
  Kentucky through the work week.
- Temperatures will remain near or just above climatological
  averages for the duration of the forecast period.
- While confidence in specific details remains low, the next
  chance of showers/storms will come this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 311 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
After extensive valley fog this morning, sunny skies prevail for
most locations at mid-afternoon, with temperatures having risen
into the low to mid-70s, making for another delightful mid-October
afternoon. A bit more mid-level cloud cover is noted north of the
Mountain Parkway due to a diffuse, remnant cold front sagging
southward. Overall, surface high pressurewith a ~1027 mb center
along the Minnesota-Ontario borderremains in firm control of our
weather, keeping a weak northerly flow across the region. Aloft,
500 hPa ridging is still firmly in place over the heart of the
nation, with a ridge axis stretching from the Texas Gulf Coast
northward into Manitoba. At 500 hPa, vorticity energy is
propagating down the eastern side of the ridge axis while a trough
digs over New England and the Atlantic Provinces.
As the trough intensifies near/over the Canadian Maritime Provinces,
weak height falls will occur over the Lower Ohio Valley through
tonight, attending the passage of the aforementioned dry cold
front. Through the remainder of the period, the 500 hPa ridge axis
will slowly shift to east of the Mississippi River valley and the
associated surface high will shift east into Quebec, allowing for
winds to veer more southeasterly by Thursday night. Dry air
wrapping clockwise around the surface high will seep in behind
the cold front tonight and Thursday, with the driest air overhead
Thursday night. Dew points are in the 50-55F range this
afternoon, but behind the boundary, they should fall closer to
40F on Thursday, with some locations possibly reaching the upper
30s. This could be low enough to allow for some patchy frost in
the coldest sheltered valleys late Thursday night and early
Friday morning.
In terms of sensible weather, patchy mid-level cloud cover is
expected through tonight. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to
dip into the 40s areawide by daybreak Thursday morning. Some fog
is possible, primarily in the more sheltered river valleys. On
Thursday, it will be modestly cooler with a drying northeast
breeze under mostly sunny skies. High temperatures are expected to
range from the mid-60s to low 70s, coolest northeast to warmest
southwest. Chillier temperatures follow for Thursday night with
lows ranging in the upper 30s to mid 40s, though a few mid 30s are
possible in the coldest hollows where a touch of patchy frost
cannot be ruled out.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
The long-term forecast begins with the area positioned behind the
cold front. Upper-level ridging and associated height rises are
forecast to build into the region overnight Thursday into Friday.
This transient pattern will usher in a brief warm-up as the
Commonwealth becomes situated between the departing trough to the
east and an approaching trough from the west. This short-lived ridge
is expected to remain in place from Friday morning through Saturday
morning. As the ridge breaks down, strong southwesterly flow ahead
of the approaching western trough will develop, advecting much
warmer temperatures into the region.
Simultaneously, the approaching trough will increase the probability
of showers and thunderstorms beginning Saturday afternoon. The upper-
level trough is forecast to drive a surface low through the northern
Great Lakes, causing the associated cold front to slowly approach
the CWA from the west. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in
coverage Saturday night and persist through the FROPA on Sunday
afternoon. While some convection could produce locally heavy
rainfall, significant hydrologic issues are not anticipated due to
the antecedent dry conditions experienced over the preceding days.
The overnight model suite currently depicts widespread QPF values of
1.00 inch, with localized amounts climbing to approximately 1.50
inches, particularly in the Bluegrass areas.
As the upper-level trough pivots overhead, the core of an 80 to 100
knot jet streak will track across the region. This dynamic forcing
is expected to enhance vertical mixing, bringing stronger winds
aloft down to the surface on Sunday. Although there is still decent
spread among deterministic model runs, sustained surface wind gusts
upwards of 20 to 25 mph will be possible Sunday afternoon. Following
the exiting front, surface high pressure will quickly build back
into the region late Sunday into Monday, dominating the forecast
from Monday through much of the early part of next week before
another system approaches for Tuesday into Wednesday.
Accompanying the active long-term pattern, temperatures are expected
to exhibit significant variability. Highs will climb significantly,
first into the low-to-upper 70s for Friday, and then into the low
80s ahead of the approaching front on Saturday. Post-frontal high
temperatures will settle back into the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Overnight lows beginning Thursday night are forecast to fall into
the low-to-mid 40s, with upper 30s possible in the more sheltered
valleys of the Big Sandy region. Temperatures will quickly rebound
Friday night due to warm air advection ahead of the approaching
frontal system, with lows expected to bottom out in the 50s for both
Friday and Saturday nights. However, following the final frontal
passage on Sunday, post-frontal lows will plunge back into the upper
30s for Sunday and Monday nights, with a slow moderation beginning
Tuesday night as warm air advection rebuilds across the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
VFR conditions were prevailing at TAF issuance and are expected
to generally continue through the period. The only exception is
tonight in the sheltered river valleys where limited fog formation
is likely. Though clear skies will be commonplace, patchy mid-
level cloud cover will attend the passage of a southward sinking
weak, dry cold cold front this afternoon through tonight. Winds
will be variable to northerly at less than 10 kts through the
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion