Garden City, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

913
FXUS62 KILM 231128
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
728 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and mainly dry weather will continue through mid week with
high pressure the dominant weather feature. Unsettled weather
is likely late this week as a cold front impacts the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1:30 AM EDT, boundary layer winds across the area have nearly
completely calmed, sans a few stations recording a slight NNE breeze
at 3-5 mph. Fog is starting to creep in near the rural areas of
Pender and Bladen Counties, and will continue to become more
widespread throughout the morning. Fog could be dense at times, and
a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed a little later this morning as we
get closer to sunrise. Fog should erode away by mid-morning for
most.
More sunshine on the way, with temperatures noticeably warmer than
yesterday. The Pee Dee region could top out at 90 degrees, while low-
to-mid 80s are likely for the coastal regions. Lows tonight in the
upper 60s to near 70, under considerably muggier conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Below normal rain chances, especially inland
*No severe storm or excessive rain threat
*Near to above normal temps
Confidence:
*High
Details: No major changes from the previous forecast. Still looks
mainly dry through early Thu before rain chances tick up with the
closer approach of a cold front. Temps will be a good bit above
normal with highs near 90 inland each day and lows generally near
70. Could even be fairly close to record highs, especially at
Florence, SC (KFLO).
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Weak cold front to bring unsettled weather late this week
*Watching the tropics early next week
*Near to above normal rain chances likely thru at least Sat night
*Very low severe storm/excessive rain risk Fri/Sat
*Above normal temps thru Fri night w/ mainly near normal highs
and above normal lows starting Sat
Confidence:
*Fri thru Sat: Moderate to High
*Sat Night thru Mon: Low
Details: No significant changes to the previous forecast this period
but some uncertainty remains, especially early next week. Increasing
moisture/forcing associated with an upper trough/low and surface
cold front will lead to elevated rain chances likely through Sat.
The increased shear could also lead to a low severe storm risk,
especially Friday. The weak front could move through Fri night
and/or Sat before likely stalling out given the slowing of the upper
pattern with a cutoff low developing over the SE U.S.. Also, a
tropical wave near The Bahamas may slowly develop into a tropical
cyclone and shift north this weekend, possibly impacting the area
early next week. Confidence in any direct tropical impacts is very
low at this time given uncertainty in strength/track of any low
pressure system, likely not even occurring until after the weekend.
Otherwise, temps should mostly be above normal through Fri night
before falling back closer to normal.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions currently in place across the area as fog just
hasn`t materialized. VFR conditions continue until late tonight
when fog may develop. Based on this mornings lack of coverage
confidence is on the lower side.
Extended Outlook...Early-morning low cigs/vis remain a possibility
each day. Rain chances and associated vis/cig restrictions become a
possibility from Thursday onward.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Northeasterly winds at 5-10 kts gradually decrease
and veer southeasterly by this evening, becoming more southerly
during the overnight hours tonight. Seas hold steady at 2-4 ft
before decreasing slightly to 2-3 ft tonight.
Wednesday through Saturday...High confidence this period. High
pressure will shift offshore giving way to a cold front approaching
from the west late in the week, possibly moving through Friday
night. The lack of strong pressure gradients and/or large swells
preclude any potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides: Minor coastal flooding along the lower Cape Fear River is
becoming less likely during the late morning high tide today.
Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for New
Hanover and Pender Counties today due to easterly swells
associated with distant tropical cyclone Gabrielle. An elevated
rip risk for east and southeast facing beaches will linger into
midweek.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...RJB/IGB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion