Garner, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

243
FXUS64 KLZK 060454
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1154 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
-Warm to hot temperatures will continue today for the southeastern
 two-thirds of the state with high temperatures reaching the
 upper 80s to upper 90s ahead and along a cold front. Across
 northwestern and north-central Arkansas, high temperatures will
 only reach to mid 70s to mid 80s as these locations begin to feel
 cooler temperatures behind the cold front.
-Significant pattern change is expected during the day on Friday
 into early Saturday as a cold front moves across the state.
-Rain and a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible Friday
 afternoon/evening through Saturday evening along and behind the
 cold front.
-A much cooler airmass behind the front will usher in below-normal
 temperatures beginning Friday afternoon and persist into early
 next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
FRIDAY (Today) THRU SATURDAY:
Currently, Arkansas is under the influence of warm and
southeasterly flow which is situated on the upper lvl western
periphery of a subtropical ridge. It is this feature which has
resulted in slightly warmer than average temperatures compared to
early September normals. However, considerable changes will begin
Friday morning into Saturday as an upper lvl trof is digging over
the Central and Eastern regions of the CONUS.
This upper lvl feature will coerce a sfc cold front to push across
Arkansas beginning Friday morning (this morning) across northwestern
Arkansas and track south-southeastward across the state, eventually
tracking into Louisiana paralleling the I-20 corridor by Saturday
morning.
Guidance consisting of the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM are in cohesion with
regards to positioning of this feature. The only small deviations
are the timing and amount of rain and storm development associated
with the movement of this front as it track across the Natural
State. The ECMWF continues to be a slightly quicker and drier
solution. However, guidance across the board is trending with a
quicker moving cold front and rain and storm activity clearing out
of central Arkansas by Saturday afternoon.
Likewise, now in the range of short-term model guidance, are on
board with these CAMS solutions such as the RAP and HRRR moving all
rain and storm activity into southern Arkansas by Saturday
afternoon.
Expect rain and thunderstorm activity to begin impacting northern
Arkansas later Friday morning into midday on Friday, central
Arkansas by late Friday afternoon into Friday evening, and southern
Arkansas into Friday evening and Friday night. The progression of
this cold front is slow and precipitation will be present behind
this anafront. Rain and isolated storm activity will taper off on
Saturday from north to south across the state throughout the day.
High temperatures today will be dependent on the placement of the
cold front and seasonable temperatures to temperatures a few degrees
above average can be anticipated across much of central and southern
Arkansas; whereas, northern Arkansas will feel high temperatures
around 10 degrees below normal as the cold front will have already
tracked through part of northern Arkansas by this afternoon.
On Saturday, with the FROPA complete across Arkansas, expect
temperatures with respect to morning lows and afternoon highs
roughly 10 degrees below average compared to normals for this time
of the year.
SUNDAY THRU THURSDAY:
Sfc high pressure will settle back in behind the cold front and lead
to a Sunday and Monday with temperatures slightly below normal with
fair and dry weather conditions will persist through the remainder
of the forecast period. The most noted difference over this period
will be the gradual increase of temperatures back to seasonal
averages or near normal for early to transitioning into mid
September by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A cold front is positioned across southern Arkansas and will
contribute to degraded flight category through the first portion of
the forecast period as all terminals are expected to drop flight
category to as low as IFR for lowered CIGS and a complex of
thunderstorm is forecast to impact central and southern sites which
could drop VSBY to MVFR. Expect many sites not to become VFR flight
category until Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening as CIGS
raise. TEMPO groups have assessed the threat TSRA will pose with
reduced VSBY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     80  58  78  53 /  20  80  40   0
Camden AR         91  63  78  59 /  30  90  50  10
Harrison AR       75  54  76  51 /  30  80  30   0
Hot Springs AR    86  61  78  57 /  30  80  40   0
Little Rock   AR  88  62  77  58 /  30  70  30   0
Monticello AR     90  65  80  61 /  30  80  50  10
Mount Ida AR      86  61  77  59 /  30  80  40   0
Mountain Home AR  77  54  79  51 /  30  80  30   0
Newport AR        80  59  78  52 /  20  80  40   0
Pine Bluff AR     92  62  78  58 /  30  80  40   0
Russellville AR   84  61  80  56 /  30  70  30   0
Searcy AR         85  60  78  54 /  20  70  40   0
Stuttgart AR      89  61  78  56 /  30  70  30   0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion