Garysburg, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

742
FXUS61 KAKQ 281906
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
306 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to track north off the Southeast
coast Monday before becoming a hurricane as it turns out to sea on
Tuesday. Light rain well north of the systems overspreads the local
area Monday into Tuesday. However, only light rainfall total are now
expected. High pressure builds in from mid to late week with cooler
and drier weather returning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 135 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Message:
- Partly to mostly cloudy skies continue this afternoon.
- A few light showers are possible across NE NC this afternoon
  and S VA/NE NC late tonight.
Latest surface analysis depicted surface high pressure centered
across the Ohio Valley and Midwest with a stationary coastal
front located offshore. Aloft, a shortwave trough remains across
the Southeast, allowing for moisture advection from the tropics
northward into the Mid Atlantic. As such, partly cloudy skies
continue this afternoon across the NW half of the FA (due to CU)
with mostly cloudy skies across the SE half of the area. Temps
as of 120 PM ranged from the low-upper 70s with afternoon highs
in the mid to upper 70s (locally near 80F) expected. Cannot rule
out an isolated shower or two across NE NC this afternoon, but
radar trends have not been promising given the coastal front now
located offshore.
A brief break in the cloud cover is possible this evening across
northern portions of the FA which may allow for some patchy fog
to develop. However, confidence is low. Otherwise, cloud cover
increases from south to north overnight as moisture continues to
advect into the region aloft. Overnight lows in the lower 60s NW
to upper 60s SE are expected. Additionally, a few light showers
are possible across south central VA and NE NC late tonight into
early Mon morning with very little QPF expected. However, a
bit of dry air in the mid levels may keep moisture from
reaching the ground until Mon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Light rain is possible Monday into Tuesday.
- Breezy NE winds are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, especially along
  the coast where gusts up to around 30 mph are possible
  Tuesday and 35 to 40 mph Wednesday.
Aloft, a shortwave trough/weak upper level low forms across the
western Carolinas Mon into Tue. At the surface, Tropical Storm
Imelda is expected to move north off the Southeast coast before
turning east and heading out to sea as a hurricane on Tue.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Humberto is also expected to make a turn and
head out to sea on Tue. Tropical Storm Imelda has taken longer to
get organized than model guidance originally depicted over the past
few days. As such, it is slower, which now means that it will very
likely miss it`s opportunity to get closer to the Southeast coast
before turning out to sea. For the local area this means lower
rainfall totals Mon into Tue. In fact, rainfall totals have now
decreased to 

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion